G'day malmanu - We all hope it will turn around but, if you're like me, you've probably being hoping that from about 3 times the current price.
That 'con. note' facility has to be paid out first ...Unfortunately, while that aweful Amvest/SBI investments 'con. note' facility remains, and the Company keeps living off it, we know that more and more shares are going to be issued, at a discount to even the cheapest recent VWAP, with the result that the inherent value per share gets lowered because of an increasing number of shares - unless there is improvement.
It's like having to walk fast on a relentless airport 'travelator', just to maintain your position and, worse, having a high speed switch flicked on every now and again as the SBI Investments mob dump stock force the price lower yet again for an even cheaper reload. And to make matters worse, once they've reloaded they then have more stock to sell, which will hit the market at a time of their choosing, filling the boots of many buyers who might otherwise have been able to tighten up supply of the stock. Rinse and repeat.As I've said on the Appendix 3B thread, it's a disastrous deal that needs to be paid out by the Board urgently.
The good news...You're dead right that our assets are still intact but we do need better than that - i.e. some improvement in the story - just to maintain the value per share, given the ongoing dilution. That said, I do think some more good news is emerging:
1. The seeds of a boom are typically sown in the last bust. The lithium market has been hammered for a while - with considerable provocation by what used to be better called merchant banks, and other vested interests, that are short in some stocks. Talking their book, in other words. In one sense this is grand scale manipulation - but don't expect politicians to act against the resulting transfer of wealth 'from Wall Street to Main Street'. Some lithium development plans have been put on hold etc., and exploration activity scaled back, too. Ultimately that will be good news for the sector, as thes upply balance will tighten. It will turn one day - I hope we can all last it out.
2 There could be tentative signs of recovery. I like the Reuters announcement below, which says that BMW:
- plans to have 25 electrified models in its offering by 2023, with more than half of them fully electric;
- expects sales of electrified vehicles to double between 2019 and 2021;
- has increased its order from one battery supplier, CATL, to 7.3 billion euros from a mid2018 booking worth 4 billion euros.
Three plus billion euros extra buying of lithium batteries from one car buyer is not chump change; never mind the still unfulfilled needs of other car companies plus the needs of all the other applications that will use an increasing numbers of lithium batteries within the next few years.
.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-battery-cells/bmw-orders-more-than-10-billion-euros-worth-of-battery-cells-idUSKBN1XV0QD
