Share market's overreact both ways, if SAMO has commercial oil...

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Aussiepunter

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14/08/18

11:22

Post #: 34920774
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Originally posted by LNC-Link ↑

I'm not sure what knowledge CVN had prior to the PS3 drill but I feel confident in that we should not be having issues with tight sands. FAR geos have an excellent understanding of the terrain, and oil potential. I am conflicted in what it is that has brought the COS down to 50%.

The confusion for me is that we were told at the Gold Coast meeting that the water contact line is the same as the SNE field. We know what makes contact with the water in SNE. The question is, what is making contact with it in Samo? Swiss cheese?

The composition of the cap is the same. The appearance of "potential" faults look similar to SNE. The sand type is well known and at Samo it is nearly full depth from peak of cap to waterline. They know what gas looks like now, and have clearly said there does not appear to be any high concentrations of gas.

It would be great to get an opinion from Ya right about now.

A previous post I put up was entitled 'Expectations'. The purpose of the post was to guage opinions and try to get a good feeling for what a successful drill of Samo would do for the SP. I assume that Samo quantities of oil would be a little easier to measure now that we have the experience of SNE. Remember SNE they thought the gas was the oil which gave them the lower expected OIP.

My point here is to try and get an average figure from us all of an expected SP increase with the intention of using it as a base case SP for a good result of Samo. If we get the expected SP surge and also get an overshoot from new blood, traders and speculators we just might be able to recognize what is pure cream and try to monetize some of it.

In other words where some holders of CVN have just seen a 50% surge in SP come and go we could be somewhat prepared.

Just sharing thoughts here.

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Share market's overreact both ways, if SAMO has commercial oil at the level of the P50 FAR will rerate, if it hits no commercial hydrocarbons at all if will take a hit.
How much either way is a dead set guess. History can guide you, but it dosn't always follow the path, as there's many factors that come into play.
COS 50% that high for an exploration well, but....... you know the rest.
That's the drilling game, and damn i love it!!

FAR Price at posting: 13.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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