the next step, page-12

some points here:

- imho ESG s/h are in a no-lose situation - the worst that can happen now is you get equivalent of 90c p/s.

- come the time of a vote on the SofA, I very much doubt that s/h will vote against the Scheme if there is no alternative but the STO offer. Take 90c or watch the SP drop.

- as H said above, ESG is now very much in play - there ain't no going back! The Directors have put ESG on the auction block.

- ***** The Directors clearly had two alternatives - either go it alone and develop upstream and downstream projects (with or with J/V partners), or sell-up.

- once they had made that determination to sell-up, they had to position ESG for that purpose.

- ******** In order to get a bidding process happening, they had to get the first bid UP !!!!

- but to do that they had to get a real bid in writing - ie a bid capable of acceptance and one with credibility

- ergo Catch 22 - STO would not bid unless it got the usual assurances ie 100% (hence Scheme of A), no shop and Directors recommendation. A SofA is much more difficult without the Recommendation of Directors

- Now that a real bid is out there, it will act as a catalyst to force any would-be bidders to act. Exactly what happended with PES from memory.

- ESG Board has plenty of escape room, because if upgrades are big, and offer proves too low, then IER will reveal that. Remember, Directors will have an escape clause whereby they can change recommendation if IER is no good, or superior offer emerges. They have legal obligation in that they MUST recommend the best offer.

- by bidding bare minimum in order to get the Directors recommendation, STO will just sit back and wait for IER and any other bidders.

- imho, no other bidders will materialise UNTIL those reserve figures are detailed in the IER.

- the other issue is, STO may increase offer if they think that the Scheme will be voted down by smaller s/h. After IER, expect to be harangued by PR coys looking to establisg your voting intentions.

NERVOUS:
well done with your media campaign.
a really good stick that has been used many times recently, is the opinion/recommendation of coys like proxy advisor RiskMetrics (i think thats the name). I have no idea who pays them, but if you could get them onside, they seem to carry a heck of a lot of weight with the media.

Also maybe Stephen Mayne and Crikey?

cheers