I posted the below yesterday before this morning's supposed correction.
BOT stated in their correction that instead of ~6,700 patients (1 Feb to 4 Jun), we have 7,989 patients (1 Jan to 30 Jun). No other correction has been made.
However, per my calcs below, which is per the BOT Pres figures, ~6,700 +/-5% seems to be the only mathematical output. With my method, you can see my output is 6,655 (the sum of the yellow, probably off actuals marginally due to my assumed April and May step down refill rates).
Unless I am misinterpreting something, therefore, to get another mathematical output, i.e. 7,989, there must be a corresponding update made to the refill rate (unlikely, semi-solid) or TRx (Column M).
My view is that June is missing some scripts, likely 4 Jun to 30 Jun also.
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Follow my calcs carefully:1. Green numbers are concrete inputs: starting with Gross AUD Rev (Column T). This is per BOT Q2 Pres. Same with GTN Yield (Column U). Average AUD/USD (Column W) is public info.2. Orange numbers are semi-concrete inputs: Q1 Cumulative Refill Rate (Column K). This is per BOT Q1 Pres. Note the figures arecumulative simpleaverages (i.e. March calculated as 97.33% x 99.07% x 100% per BOT Q1 Pres).3. Blue numbers are my own inputs: April and May Cumulative Refill Rate (Column K). I have stepped this down to arrive at the next known green concrete number, which is June 79% Cumulative Refill Rate, which is per BOT Q2 Pres.4. For the purpose of these calcs, consider the above locked down. Note for legend completeness, black numbers are formula driven calculations.5. Row by row, we then goal seek each month's New Customers Per Month (Column I, highlighted yellow), to arrive at the BOT Q2 Pres disclosed Scripts Sold (Column M).Note 1: Refilling Customers = Prior Month's Cumulative New Customers x Cumulative Refill Rate (e.g. March: (169 + 785) x 96.42% = 920)Note 2: Scripts Sold = Refilling Customers + New Customers (e.g. March: 920 + 1,185 = 2,105)As you can see, the outputs are vastly different to what was disclosed in BOT Q1 Pres. As BG posted just above, BOT Q1 Pres says 'exceeding 500 new patients per week, trending at more than 2,000 per month'. The output per my above method shows, as at March, 296 per week, or 1,185 per month.The company must explain. Either Q1 data was misreported in Q1, Q2 data is misreported in Q2, or I am misinterpreting something.
(20min delay)