The Numbers, page-4

Hi Crows,

I know there will be many arguments against my numbers. I will give some responses to your statements.

A very strong argument against your 3 to 1 in Australia statistic is this:

1) That was in launch year, the following year (when people got over the initial 'craze') the number fell almost four fold to 17m.

2) The Yowies were designed for an Australian target market. The character's origins are Australian animals and they leverage off of the Blinky Bill ideals (it was a very intelligent - yet still genuine - way to market chocolates to Australia). Fight between miners and the natural environment. This speaks to people in Australia and you can capture the whole markets attention. I don't find people in the US are quite so 'mentally inspired'. Plus the nation is so incredibly diverse. I was very surprised that Yowie didn't tailor their product a lot more to the US market (e.g. perhaps more of an american Indian based theme that reflects the natural US environment and that Americans can quickly relate to).

On your other points:

Even Foster, who have an invested interest in Yowies' success, speculated only 60 Yowies' per Walmart store. My 42.5 is above what Yowies have been selling at in other stores at steady state. You want to be careful not to get excited when speculating numbers like this, I don't think my 42.5 number is unfair or even particularly conservative.

Finally, good point on the exchange rate. For now you can add 20% to those numbers. But the AU dollar is at a particularly low point and the US dollar is particularly strong right now, so this might not last forever. Only a few years back you would have had to discount my numbers by 10%.

And don't discredit me for not researching the numbers. All my numbers were based on known numbers or numbers presented by Foster. Even then I said it was back of napkin. I think this is a decent first look into the potential here, i.e. ball park. You can present a worst case and a best case. IMO this is a mid case.