goldman didnt need to justify the beta of more than 1.0 of BPt...

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rollacoaster

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16/01/22

22:55

Post #: 58904207
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Originally posted by scottyb83 ↑

I remember reading that report, for the life of me can't remember their justification and tbh didn't believe it anyway. Given BPT production was only ~40% Oil & LPG in 2021 (using mmboe for total), and rest is NG on a $/GJ local sale price plus over next few years their oil production will become lower % vs NG, I couldn't see how BPT could be that leveraged to oil price.

Still totally agree though they appear undervalued both vs broader market and relative to peers and hence happy to hold till they (hopefully) correct, my suspicion is it may not happen till Waitsia starts or they manage to fix WF prod rates.

From ASX companies, I'm happy with Karoon as the pure oil play to benefit significantly from increasing POO, particularly with their aims to double production over next 1-2 years. Not as diverse a producer as BPT, but good upside in bull oil market. I hold both plus WPL though as all have opportunity in current market and don't want all eggs in one basket.

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goldman didnt need to justify the beta of more than 1.0 of BPt and POO, it is calculated based purely on mathematics and historical trading fluctuations of those two prices. Any mathemetician would have come up with the same figure - it just is what it is

OSH had a beta to POO of more than 1.5, I dont know why but the maths doesnt lie

Last edited by rollacoaster: 16/01/22

BPT Price at posting: $1.40 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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