Well to put things into perspective and these figures are approximate:
In 2020 the POO (Brent) was circa $65 and BPT SP was $2.80. Brent then (post covid) fell to $21.00 and BPT went to circa $1.00
In 2021 the POO (Brent) was circa $55 and BPT SP was $2.00. After the 5% downgrade the SP, over the months, again went to circa $1.00 and the POO was circa $45.
So for a 5% or so downgrade we lost 50% of our SP but the POO has now increased better than 100% and since then our SP while having gone down by $1.00 has only recovered $0.50. Go figure.
My sense is that BPT are making money hand over fist but have taken a "once bitten twice shy" approach when it comes to providing forecasts. So the proof will be in the pudding possibly when the Q3 comes out and we might see revised figures and guidance and that might cause the rerate.
Feel free to check my figures and add some points.
Cheers
BW
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