Hi Aqua,
This is a genuine question, have you done any work on the individual gas contracts that BPT has with various customers and if so can you publish it as its hard to work out what is really going on with these gas contracts.
I tried back in 2020 and came up with this which was just based on previous announcements and it is lacking detail.
I have tried asking BPT but due to confidentiality they were very reluctant to give or confirm anything.
What we do know is the Origin contract price was reviewed last year with a midpoint gas price quoted of around $9.34/GJ which suggests the remaining contracts are currently averaging $7.27/GJ
So the key issue is when are the remaining Gas contracts going to reflect true market pricing as clearly they currently do not.
This was my 2020 attempt at looking at the gas contracts
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
| 1 |
|
|
Vol(pj)/pa |
Counterplay |
Basis |
End Date |
PriceReview date |
Market pricing |
| 2 |
Cooper basin JV |
|
|
Origin Energy |
Oil Linked with downside protection |
Jun-25 |
N/A |
|
| 3 |
Cooper basin JV |
|
|
Origin Latice GSA |
Fixed Price plus CPI until repricing |
Jun-30 |
1-Jul-23 |
1-Jul-22 |
| 4 |
Cooper basin JV Ethane |
|
36.3 |
Qenos |
|
2025 |
N/A |
1-Jul-21 |
| 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
Western Flank Gas |
|
8.6 |
Various |
|
Dec-21 |
|
1-Jul-21 |
| 7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
Victoria Otway |
|
|
Origin Latice GSA |
Fixed Price plus CPI until repricing |
Jun-33 |
1-Jul-23 |
1-Jul-21 |
| 9 |
Victoria Otway |
|
|
Origin Toyoto GSA |
|
|
1-Jul-23 |
1-Jul-21 |
| 10 |
Victoria Otway |
|
18.4 |
AGL |
|
2021 |
N/A |
1-Jul-22 |
| 11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
Bas Gas |
|
6.1 |
Alinta |
|
Dec-21 |
N/A |
1-Jul-21 |
| 13 |
SA Otway |
|
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
Total BPT share |
|
70.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
This was the Gas sales from the December 2021 Quarterly report
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 1 |
|
PJ |
$M |
$/GJ |
|
Next Rev |
| 2 |
Cooper Basin |
7.30 |
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
Victoria Otway Basin |
4.30 |
40 |
9.34 |
Origin Contract |
Jul-23 |
| 4 |
Kupe |
3.20 |
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
Perth Basin |
1.90 |
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
Western Flank |
1.70 |
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
Bassgas |
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
Other |
0.30 |
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
Total |
19.70 |
152 |
7.7 |
|
|
| 10 |
Origin known |
4.30 |
40 |
9.34 |
|
|
| 11 |
Other |
15.40 |
112 |
7.27 |
|
|
| 12 |
Total |
19.70 |
152 |
7.70 |
|
|
Beach claim the actual Gas/Ethane price for the quarter was $7.60/GJ so pretty close to the $7.70 average.
If the remaining non Origin gas contracts are going to get price reviewed say 1st July 2022 and that's likely at least 60% of the volume then its possible we could see maybe a $1.50 to $2.00 (around an extra $150-$200M in revenue per year) jump in the averaged realised Gas/Ethane price but if there is no price review on them and they just continue as is based on unknown formula then we will not see much of an increase in the average gas price achieved until at least July 2023.
This is the unknown unless anyone else knows anything more about this.
Clearly additional Gas sales will be more market based priced but its the existing contracts that I am interested in as this could change my long term view on BPT if its proven that all these contracts will soon be on true market prices rather than old negotiated prices.
(20min delay)