Nothing like TO talk to enjoy a bit of speculation :), tbh I...

Nothing like TO talk to enjoy a bit of speculation , tbh I think a TO would struggle to value bpt appropriately, due to the large (and under-appreciated) potential to increase production and cashflow over next 2-4 years. In this Barney's $3 comment makes a certain sense to me (though I agree unlikely to see that offer quite yet) At current eps BPT trades at a P/E of 10 vs peers P/E of ~14-18, in some part due to low free cashflow due to high investment. By FY24 to 25 the investment drops off and production ramps up, modelling a US$75/bbl oil price with a local gas price of ~ A$8.2/bbl, with WF dropping back to FY18 levels and CB oil dropping 10%pa I still see potential earnings in the 0.25-0.3cps range. A P/E of 10 would give $2.5-3/share which should be conservative when cashflows improving. the TO would need a P/E offer closer to peers which could then see it over $3. Either way I'm happy to wait till FY24-25, as there is greater value yet if they can execute well and salvage some WF production.
this is all very speculative, and just imo, dyor.