The Orange Swan, page-2

Idle could refer to the SFX thread as much as it's share trading, this silence only makes my tinnitus seem that much worse. Meanwhile the world second guesses or waits on how the trade negotiations will pan out, bouncing around between tweets from both sides positioning for maximum leverage and face saving preperations.

The SFX bid is looking thinner than a meth addict in a Salvo's food kitchen line, and the price just as unhealthy. In 'normal' times this would be an invitation for the nervous or manipulators to have a crack before breaking below 50c support but I'm guessing SFX is simply looking too cheap to be worth the cost without the push of a trade war on, risk off correction. Would be sellers probably sense such selling will be soaked up from off-screen bargain hunters without falling market support, I know I will be averaging down below 50's... unless the guts completely falls out of the market.

Still, management have managed to run this sale process so long and without supporting commentary that 50c doesn't seem cheap enough for 'the market' to actually put up a bid on screen, god forbid take a money-for-jam nibble at the 54's. Has support become resistance? If the market does turn south and SFX needs a big lick of market equity how will they do it at anything like a reasonable price? Many here seem incredibly sanguine to the ugly reality that the market price becomes the default for pricing CR's, and it is for this reason that most companies cum raise for a FID equity package try to keep their share price up. Just re-reading previous broker reports and they make it clear that recent price target drops were directly related to the likely increased dilution that the fall to 65c in December presented. So what would that do to new price targets contemplating from a 50c price base?

I am realistic enough to be nervous at both the market. and the current share price lacking much buying volume during this recent move down. I cannot for the life of me believe that if there were good offers on the table that management would both drag the sale process out and fail to appropriately communicate or leak that negotiations were going well to support the share price. There are no prizes I can see for allowing the share price to continue falling into an eventual CR, though I'm happy for any here to point them out. I can see partner deals that could push the share price up a bit before going for a CR but why start from much lower levels with the psychological damage that does if you don't have to? Hopefully, being simply too cheap to sell will help form price support by avoiding the required volumes to push much lower. I recommend re-reading the Blue Ocean Oct 18 report for a good dose of valuation confirmation, though the anticipated dilution levels now look ancient history.

The market is still odds-on that the trade deal will sort itself out satisfactorily in reasonable time. It is a reminder though that time is not on the side of junior resource companies looking to raise a funding package. When the markets are in great shape, commodity prices high and capital abundant why drag out the funding process any longer than it needs be and risk getting caught out in a market downturn? Crazy stuff, sorry I can't agree with any here that the process need take this long or longer, nor that the price is immaterial. When the ducks are quacking you feed them! The only logical explanation I have for the long, long structured sale process (after failing last year with another adviser) is unfortunately that no obviously good outcomes have been tabled. Ongoing, protracted negotiations to try and squeeze out an acceptable deal from the best potential partners would explain what is dragging the process out, all while time and increased market risks works against us. Taking this much time on purpose makes no tactical sense to me what so ever. Still, nothing a last minute TO from Iluka wouldn't remedy haha.

In God we trust, in Trump we fear, in Bruce we rely...

Good luck