the past two weeks and whats next

Let me start out by stating the obvious. Anyone holding these shares at the trading halt is locked in until after the coming announcement. Anyone not wishing to hold shares over the halt has to get out safely ahead of the trading halt. Presumably, most too, would like to get out ahead of the "rush", whenever that might occur, to preserve their gains. I think this very phenomenon has been driving the trading over the past two weeks - a bit earlier than I had expected, but then, I have no crystal ball.

Metabolic has about 300 million shares outstanding. About 200 million of those shares are held by large and very large long-term investors who are in for the long term and are not contributing to the current trading. Of the 100 million shares remaining held by small and medium sized investors, I think that somewhere between 40 to 70 million are also being held by individuals planning to hold the shares through the halt.

My thinking is that at the beginning of the past two weeks trading somewhere between 30 to 60 million shares were held by individuals considering selling ahead of the halt. During the past two weeks almost 14 milion of these shares changed hands. That means that somewhere between 25% and 50% of all the shares available for sale have already been mopped up, most likely by individuals planning to hold through the trading halt. This intention to hold becomes more and more likely with each trading day for obvious reasons. Personally, I think we are closer to the 50% estimate. In another week, assuming daily volumes in excess of 1 million shares, we'll see another 10 to 15% of available shares removed from the market.

Within the coming week, the relative scarcity of shares for sale will begin to become apparent.

I look for a trend significantly up from here right into the halt.