the past two weeks and whats next, page-7

To Ed:

On a purely speculative issue (as MBP assuredly is) you would expect the price to be "all over the place", especially as we approach an all or nothing milestone event.

If there were no doubt that AOD9604 is nothing but snake oil, the likely price going into the halt would be somewhere south of 5 cents a share. The stampede for the exits would be underway, and not only by the small punters, but by the major shareholders. But in any case someone has to hold these shares: they aren't just going to evaporate. Buyers would have to be found and they would only be found very near to the ground.

On the other hand, if it were a dead certain gimme that the results will be golden, the price should be maybe $4.00 a share going into the halt.

But, the truth is that it's anybody's guess what this trial will show. There are educated views on both sides of this question as indicated by the following:

"Dr Dennis Hulme, health and life sciences analyst with BBY, noted Metabolic's sharp drop from $1.02 on January 30 to close at 87.5c today and said that looking back at its share price performance leading up to its bad news trial results in 2004 an almost identical pattern could be seen.

"He said: 'In 2004, in the six months leading up to the trial result announcement, there was 150 percent run-up with a 27 percent pullback about a month before, followed by a return to its higher levels.

'This time, in the last six months we've seen 170 percent gain, and now, with six weeks to go we've seen a 25 percent, so if history is a guide we can expect it to go up again.'

"Hulme was emphatic though that he wasn't expecting history to predict the trial result, stressing: 'This time it looks highly likely that the result will be positive.'"

Will Hulme (and others - like me - be proven right, or will the shorts be right?)

I have my view, as do you, and in the fullness of time, all will be revealed.