The path to a Billion Dollar + company, page-269

Here is some Welsh healthcare data published in January 2021 (https://n.neurology.org/content/96/8/e1251) and some IIH data which I thought was from 2016 but now it says 2018 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41433-018-0238-5).

1765 cases of IIH in 2017 in Wales

Population of Wales is 3,136,000

We know IIH is correlated with obesity in women as per figure 2c and that women make up the majority of the IIH population, standard stuff.

Therefore due to lack of data, I am going to extrapolate this data for Europe.

Wales is 3,136,000 / 700,000,000 of Europe so 0.448%

They had 1765 cases of IIH in 2017 so 1765/0.00448 = 393,973 total IIH patients in Europe using this data.

This gives an updated prevalence in Europe of 56.3 per 100,000 in the general population.

The UK has a 27.8% obesity rate, the US has a 36.2% obesity rate (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-obese-countries).

Therefore it could be reasonable to assume that this data is not due to an abnormally large BMI relative to the rest of the world.

At that prevalence the valuation based on peak sales etc goes crazy.

Where am I wrong here. Why shouldn't I 10x my valuation model right now. Is there better data out there which I haven't found yet.

Also I know that there are many other meta analyses which have much lower prevalence data but they are mostly from the 2000's, I just want to hear if anyone has figured out why there is such a discrepancy between studies.

Figure 1

https://n.neurology.org/content/96/8/e1251



Figure 2

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41433-018-0238-5



P.S. it is 1am so if any of the maths/reasoning it off that cannot be attributed to my intellect.

Let me know your thoughts!