The importance of that IFDC support can't be over stated. It has helped get MNB to the construction phase much more quickly than otherwise possible. The greenhouse and field trials by the IFDC have been invaluable in assisting to first develop the phosphate rock into a soluble product and then to help optimise the blend to maximise its effectiveness and therefore its value and expected selling price.
The value they will add and the time they will save in developing the market and distribution channels with MNB will also be difficult to quantify. One of the big reasons I invested is that very strong support from such a respectable, capable, very well funded and very motivated organisation that exists to assist and develop the agricultural sector in poorer countries. In a nutshell, from Google;
IFDC is an independent non-profit organization that combines innovative research, market systems development, and strategic partnerships to spread sustainable agricultural solutions for improved soil health, food security, and livelihoods around the world.
With the continued support of the IFDC, I have no doubt this initial phosphate project (worth at least 40-60c per share based on the scoping study and plugging in a MAP price comfortably below current prices) will be a big success and little doubt now that MNB will be able to fund and develop its green ammonia project. Let's see what that project will be worth. I'm becoming confident that it will also be worth more than our current mc, especially if the company gets its further 100MW power allocation to double capacity. I'm keen to look back in a year and see how MNB had performed relative to my targets, which are;
Worst case, base case on a collapse of fertiliser prices to multi decade lows - 20-30c
More realistic base case without ammonia - 30-40c
Mid case without ammonia and allowing for a very significant correction in MAP prices - 60-80c
Mid case with ammonia - 80c - $1
Further out than 1 year as the ammonia project is de-risked - I'd rather wait and see its economic studies.
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