The perfect storm, page-86

The way I see it is that STM have sat back, while doing rigorous due diligence themselves, and just observed the financing deals Argonaut have brought to the table.

They now know exactly what offer they need to make in order to become the financing partner. Remember that STM are associated with the EPC contractor and their affiliated bank.

I think STM wants to takeover TON. They don't want to share it with anyone and that includes not sharing the vanadium with anyone. So, in my mind, a JV at NH as a means of funding Ancuabe is not in prospect.

Most likely there will a form of mezzanine debt funding, eg convertible notes, from STM to fund Ancuabe. The conversion price will hopefully be somewhere around the 14c ps valuation by Argonaut. It could be lower if the other prospective financiers were less than convinced by that valuation. STM knows everything about those other financiers so they will offer just a few pips better than the best of them.

As for timing of a takeover, I don't see that happening before the TONOBs and TONOCs expire. It's not in STM's to have those exercised. The takeover price will be slightly north of the mezzanine debt conversion price.