the population growth / housing shortage myth

I really thought we'd already busted the population growth/housing shortage myth?

The article below perfectly illustrates the misconception and explodes the myth. It was written in February 2006 - just as house prices in Southern California were peaking. They have since plunged some 40% and still show no signs of reaching an ultimate bottom. Now we are hearing (yet again!) the exact same rhetoric about a growing population and a supposed housing shortage in Australia from our own housing and real estate industries and vested interests. Same rationalization - same fate?

A flood of housing supply is about to hit markets across Australia over spring (as many investors realise a top is in and struggling mortgage holders also seek to delever). Meanwhile, demand from buyers is falling (as we've seen in recent figures showing falling housing finance, auction clearance rates and sales). This trend is set to intensify as deflationary expectations take hold - regardless of population growth.


Construction industry says housing crisis has hit California

February 9, 2006

The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) continues to express alarm over what it calls an ongoing housing crisis in Southern California.

Alan Nevin, the association's chief economist, projected in a 2006 CBIA Housing Forecast that only 185,000 to 205,000 building permits will be granted this year, far short of the 240,000 new homes needed each year.

Southern California has been experiencing a massive population boom in recent years and its believed that 6 million new residents will be living in the region by 2020. The population increase, coupled with the housing shortage, has the CBIA worried that it will be increasingly difficult for first-time homebuyers to find a moderately priced unit.

"Los Angeles and Ventura counties are suffering from a housing crisis, said Holly Schroeder, chief executive officer of the Building Industry Association Greater Los Angeles Ventura Chapter. While we have seen increases in permitting, it still consistently falls far below the needs of our region. We have to find a way to take care of our own and provide housing to those that need it and want it."

To solve the shortage, many Southern California cities are increasing the number of permits they allow for the construction of condominium and condominium conversion units, helping to give first-time homebuyers a less-expensive alternative. But the CBIA still warns that these efforts may be too little, too late.

"In some cases, it can take nearly a decade to get new housing projects approved. Thats longer than it takes a pharmaceutical company to bring a drug to market, Schroeder said. The real question facing Southern California is how do we propose to help families realize the American dream and provide housing for the current and future generations living in California?"

The 2006 forecast published by the California Association of Realtors paints a similar a picture to that of the CBIA. While home sales are expected to decline by 2 percent and unsold inventories are predicted to increase, a 10 percent increase in the median price is predicted for a California home, the association said. Next year, the average home price in California is predicted to hit $573,000.

Officials are worried locally as well. "We are concerned that a lack of sufficient housing is causing prices to grow exponentially", said Gary Wartik, economic development manager for the city of Thousand Oaks...

Read the complete article here;

http://www.toacorn.com/news/2006-02-09/Front_page/005.html