Ok I've been doing some serious research and digging up info. There was a study done recently on the Telehealth sector in the US so lets use that as our base to derive a possible number for RAP. Let's use American Well in our assumptions remembering there are other big players in the Telehealth sector. American has at least 25M patients (apparently they just got access to another 25M?) on its books and according to the study I've been dissecting each patient does 1.3 visits per annum. So that's a total of 32.5M telehealth visits a year. Now out of those visits, 12% are cold/flu diagnosis (I think one can possibly see these patients also using RAP's app as they are in a way respiratory illnesses), 5% are respiratory conditions. But let's use the base case 5% of all telehealth patient visits for respiratory diseases which = 1.6M visits. RAP has made it's self clear that it is targeting per test revenue and a test say costs $10 (apparently a telehealth visit costs between $40-$50 as per the study). Out of the 1.6M visits (remember this is just American Well) say two thirds of them used the RAP app as per doctor suggestion so that = 1M using RAP app = $10 x $1M = $10M in revenues. This is the base case. My assumptions use a $10 per test fee (I need to find out a more reliable figure). Now there are other telehealth providers out there so if one extrapolates that perhaps RAP might get access to 100M patients across US and the Cold/Flu patient also use the app, then one could easily see revenues of ~$100M per annum in US alone on per test basis only. on $100M possibility the market could easily see RAP get closer to $1B MC on an optimistic basis. Please add anything or question my assumptions (remembering most of the figures I got was from a comprehensive Us telehealth study)
