the potential of potash , page-2

extracted from Resource Investor...

Future Outlook for Potash Prices
It seems clear that demand for agricultural commodities will continue to rise and that demand for fertilisers will rise too. As Virtual Metals pointed out in a recent report, the world’s population is set to rise from 6.5 billion to 9 billion by 2030 by which point two thirds of the world will be urban-dwellers. This population will have to be fed from a shrinking arable area which must be more intensively farmed requiring improved crop strains, greater application of technology and increased use of fertiliser.
But will there be sufficient supply to meet demand?

RBCCM……… argue there is not currently a surplus of potash. As evidence of the current supply deficit RBCCM point to the high prices and low inventory levels concluding that the world is not awash with potash.
RBCCM believes that this situation will persist at least into the medium term given limited new capacity additions and growing demand. Moreover the report notes that “with production barely keeping up with demand and inelastic supply even a small increase in potash demand of a minor production disruption could cause a significant increase in potash prices.”
A report by Scotia Economics is also very optimistic about the medium term outlook for potash anticipating Vancouver prices of over $800/tonne by the end of this year which could then stabilise at that level for a while.