@vic_wattle, Thanks for the reference. I actually came across...

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    @vic_wattle,

    Thanks for the reference.

    I actually came across these guys some years ago, although I haven't followed their musings for some time .

    While I found their newsletters offer some keen high-level macro-thematic insights, there doesn't seem to be much meat on the bone when it comes to the process by which they invest in individual companies.

    While they have indeed performed very well over time (I assume their published investment performance figures are independently verified), and have outperformed the broader Australian market, I note that it has been for two major macro-secular reasons. They:

    1. were heavily invested (>60%) in bonds in the lead-up to the GFC (they made an absolute killing)
    2. have basically been invested in the US market for the past decade, which has been the global equity market that has beaten all others by far.

    So it looks like they have made two major macro bets, both of which paid off.

    They clearly are a rarity, in being able to look through the day-to-day "noise" in the market (I strongly suspect that being based away from the east coast of Australian, where all the stockbrokers and fund managers operate, has actually been a major advantage for them because it has help them avoid the interminable distractions).

    It warrants mentioning that they are very bullish on energy, pointing to under-investment in capacity (makes me want to buy WOR) in recent years.

    Ominously, they are very bearish on Australia.

    All, up interesting read, for sure.

    (I always say I have never met a "macro" investor that can generate out-sized excess investment returns on a sustainable basis. These guys could be the first.)
 
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