It is Saturday morning, away for the weekend with my wife and...

It is Saturday morning, away for the weekend with my wife and the dog walking in Devon. Or as my lovely wife puts it. Other than our 3 children, she is going away with her true love. That’s the dog. But they do need a driver.
This whole thread is about perspective, time, patience, understanding emotions etc.
Great couple of posts above from @gerzensee and as this post will bump this thread back to the top I hope it will give as many as possible an opportunity to read through his writings on this thread.
I personally have found them to be very helpful at times. However I still think a better title would be “The Psychology of Investing”.
Trading it seems is driven by sentiment or perhaps inside information going by certain spikes up and down of our share price. I have invested in Mesoblast and when we have had set backs (and there have been some pearlers) with all the noise and collapsing share price it has good to ground my reaction back to the “attitude of me as a person” my psychology of investing in Mesoblast. The data with the cash flow to ensure that the promise in the data reaches the market.
@gerzensee writes in 1 post about managing expectations, well I believe that with investing in Mesoblast that investment expectation can be “managed” in the p values I try to understand in all these trials.
We have 1 product being sold in Japan. Loads of data that proves it works and has no major side effects. In the biggest market, FDA said “no, not yet”. Share price collapses. Further major blows, in failed primary endpoints in Heart, CLBP and the Covid Ards fiasco where the trial was changed midpoint by others out of the control of Mesoblast.
Shorters (some spell that term with an i) amplify the noise of failure to appeal to our emotions, it becomes our personal failure. As @Royalsandman so painfully posted. We who are sitting on losses, we have failed as Mesoblast, SI and his team have failed. The psychology of dealing with that is difficult and why understanding and keeping faith in the fundamentals is so important. And for me putting on ignore (and posting to share my thoughts with my HC community) the self-appointed Doomwatch Division, many who have no financial stake in the company.
So managing expectations and the critical P value.
If someone said invest in this product that if the trial is successful, the value of your investment will multiply about 10x’s possibly more. A 10-1 shot on the horses? Well unless you are dealing with an addiction, it would be a bit of fun money. However if it had a 95% chance of success then at the race track the odds would be closer to for every £/$ 100 you bet, the bookie would pay £/$1 back. Now look at the p value from the data from the CLBP trial and see what the odds are of achieving the result required in the newly announced CLBP trial. Happy with those odds? Then be confident in your investment decision.
If the OTAT recommendation to accept our potency assay method is negative, do you believe this trial would have been formulated? Do you believe that SI was lying when he said that we have been working closely with the FDA on this during the standard appeals process following a “not yet” letter?
We already know that SRGvHD therapy works (Japan), conspiracy theories about FDA and big pharma blocking us in the USA? We are working to establish a high bar of entry for these paradigm treatments. That is good news for us, we have the patents.
Look at the p values for what we can do for about 700,000 Americans a year with diabetes and Heart conditions. Suddenly a new term for me RMAT has appeared. Read that imo as if this does pop up in the application and is granted, read it as the FDA giving us an open goal to score in, in any required trial, or even some conditional approval. Either way, to be honest, I will not be able to control my expectations and neither will the shorters with the share price.
We have the p values as a company in our data, I have the p value (patience) as an investor and the p value (psychology of investing) and the p value (pals on the forum to help me) to see this work through to give me the p value (£’s) on my investment. All is well and I have the p of positivity to look forward to next year.
Can anybody help with my emotional investment in the outcome of the Ashes? No Australian trollers please.
regards
Yelrom