MSB (ASX) The Psychology of Trading

Originally posted by gerzensee: ↑

I check my HotCopper account almost every day to look for insights that kind people, who are under no obligation to share their knowledge, offer in good faith. However, I hadn’t noticed that my last post was back in May. A lot has happened in my life since then, and I’m sure even more has occurred at Mesoblast HQ and the FDA. So why does this feel like a long lull? Most likely, dopamine has something to do with it. Once we understand how the molecule, neurotransmitter, and hormone dopamine impacts our mood and motivation, we can take action to either increase or decrease its release.

Even though dopamine is a molecule, it also functions as a neurotransmitter and a hormone. Today, we are concerned with dopamine as a neurotransmitter. From an evolutionary perspective, dopamine has led our species to where we are now. It reinforced behaviors like hunting, mating, and staying warm and dry by creating pleasurable feelings, encouraging us to repeat those actions. To illustrate the importance of dopamine, consider that all animals, including reptiles, have dopaminergic circuits.Why is this relevant to investing, possible FDA approval(s), and waiting for our investments to mature?

We are all born with a certain dopaminergic baseline, which is partly genetic and partly biological. This baseline determines whether we are energetic, motivated, and interested, or more unmotivated, moody, and possibly even susceptible to addiction. Each time we make what we think is a successful trade, post on HotCopper, predict a price upon approval, read of an even higher potential price, or anticipate an approval date, dopamine is released, causing a spike above the baseline. Most people are familiar with this concept. What is less well known is that after many or large spikes in dopamine, it falls below the baseline, making us feel disappointed, sad, or stuck in a lull.It gets worse: if we repeat these spikes long enough, we can lower our dopaminergic baseline, making it harder to achieve the same highs as before. I would wager that most long-term holders find it difficult to muster the same enthusiasm they had shortly after the ADCOM meeting. Fortunately, there is a solution.

The usual suspects - such as a healthy diet, regular exercise, good sleep hygiene, avoiding overstimulation, sunlight exposure, and cold exposure - can all lift your dopaminergic baseline. However, the best results come from leaning into difficult processes. This means embracing hardship and difficulty as learning and growth opportunities, which, in turn, will raise your dopaminergic baseline over time. This concept is rooted in the brain's reward system and how dopamine is involved in motivation and the pursuit of long-term goals.You can achieve this by delaying gratification. Consistently working toward difficult goals can elevate your baseline dopamine levels as your brain becomes accustomed to the sense of progress. Engaging in challenging tasks builds resilience, and by regularly facing and overcoming difficulties, you train your brain to associate effort with a dopamine reward. This promotes a higher baseline and can enhance dopamine receptor sensitivity, meaning your brain becomes more responsive to dopamine over time. This process, known as neuroplasticity, helps your brain adapt to challenges and sustain higher levels of dopamine activity.

Mesoblast provides us with many opportunities to practice this approach and grow. Unfortunately, delayed gratification is not highly valued in today's society, but that doesn’t make it any less valuable.I personally subscribe to these concepts and constantly try to challenge myself in various ways—professionally, personally, and physically. I turned 60 last year and had never run before. So I set myself the goal of completing, or at least attempting to complete, a marathon this year. To do that, I had to get out of my comfort zone and train 3-4 times a week for at least six months, regardless of weather, motivation, pain, or discomfort. I had to make changes to my diet and sleep pattern. I chose one of the most beautiful marathons but also one of the most difficult, as it includes 1,950 meters of elevation over the last 17 kilometers. If I hadn’t leaned into the process and the pain involved, I would never have attempted this or given myself the satisfaction of crossing the finish line.

The same may hold true for our investments. In this lull, there are many opportunities for us to grow. Let's not only grow financially but also on a personal level and at the same time widen our knowledge base.

Expand

Unfortunately MSB is a world champ at delayed gratification for longs.... Not so much for shorts.

You may enjoy a look at the 1800's work of Franz Mesmer in the area of psychiatry. He gave us the word mesmerise I understand as well as the uses of magnetism in psychiatry not yet fully understood.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
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1.125	43578	3
1.130	87126	8
1.135	1090	1
1.140	141598	9
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(20min delay)
Last $1.13		Change 0.035(3.21%)		Mkt cap ! $1.284B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.09	$1.13	$1.07	$3.910M	3.535M

The Psychology of Trading, page-909

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