The RAC 3-Pillar Trifecta, page-187

DYOR. Analysis is speculative to understand potential value of the indication to Big Pharma and implied value to shareholders.
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I've tacked a revenue model for Pancreatic Cancer onto the right-hand end of the figures below. I have kept it separate from the total for the 3-pillar strategy.

Assumptions:

• 50% probability of success as per FTO and discount rate 25% given the lower clinical probability.
• Incidence for Pancreatic Cancer from sources below.
• 5% share of treatment
• Pricing Based on average USD $333k for midpoint 900 patients against revenue USD $300M, https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/20-tibsovo
• Ledley FD, McCoy SS, Vaughan G, Cleary EG. Profitability of Large Pharmaceutical Companies Compared With Other Large Public Companies.
• http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
• Fully-diluted share issue assumed at 200M shares ( current is 162M shares ).

Results - risked value per share for Pancreatic cancer at $1.17 per share, risked post-tax NPV for Pancreatic Cancer at AUD $228M ( 50% clinical probability and 20% discount rate applied ).




Note - Keytruda, which I have used as the basis of Revenue Potential for FTO at USD $24.91B is currently approved for 30 indications (first approval in 2014). So each indication averages at USD $0.83 revenue.

https://www.drugs.com/history/keytruda.html

My chart of the growth in approvals for Keytruda.