The RAC quintuple (5-path strategy)

'Bags' at the bottom needs to be in sparkly green font $$$$

This time with the correct screenshot, lol.

DYOR. Not advice. Not a specific recommendation to buy or sell.​

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I've previously posted valuations. Revisiting the revenue potential.

With considerable success in historic trials, clinical risk is significantly reduced, particularly for AML.



Adjusting assumptions to match assumptions I have recently used in my valuation of MSB.

That is:

• P/E
  • at 22.48 (source http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html )
  • Note - CSL is trading at a P/E of 47.1
• Pharma / Biotech Industry Net or After-tax Profit Margin
  • at 13.8%
    (source https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32125401/ )
• Exchange rate $0.64

On dilution, my assumption is no more than 30% additional dilution on the basis that RAC get a partner on board following first read-outs from the Phase II AML trials.

Here's the current numbers. Many here have seen an earlier iteration of the model.

I see RAC as a takeover play. A future liquidity event when they progress their pathways through Phase II trials. So share price estimates below give perspective on the scale of the upside.

But it's the historic performance as a single-agent, whilst also being cardio-safe that we are here for.

Will go back through my posts later to explain the underlying assumptions on patient populations, etc.