DML 0.00% 1.9¢ discovery metals limited

The "rational" investor bought into DML with the expectation...

  1. 60 Posts.
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    The "rational" investor bought into DML with the expectation that it would be able to generate enough cash over the coming number of months or years to (1) repay the debts and (2) give some return to shareholders for the risk of investing their capital. In other words, the price the rational investor paid had already factored in the probable repayment of the debt.

    Therefore, the minimum headline price that the rational investor is looking for from any suitor for the Boseto assets is:
    1. USD 100M: the loan amount;
    2. USD 9.6M: the interest the lenders were expecting to earn on their investment in 4 to 8 years time, discounted back to today. I've based this amount on the discounted value published in the 2014 Annual Report.
    3. USD 20M: the bonus for completing the loan: I'm not 100% sure on the terms behind this bonus, but am anticipating the lenders will benefit from the terms.
    4. USD 26M: 665m shares x AUD0.048 per share x 0.81 USD/AUD
    5. USD 8M: a 30% premium to shareholders for releasing their assets to the acquirer, or to cover the risk of investing their capital.

    Total: USD 164M as the minimum amount for shareholders to give up their producing and profitable Boseto assets.

    This can be compared to the USD 165M published in the 2014 Annual Report for Property, Plant & Equipment, which is the value of the assets that the shareholders paid to have built.

    I continue to emphasise this is the minimum a rational investor should expect. I believe the assets are worth more, as the replacement value for a fully sorted processing plant, electricity generating plant and operating mine is USD208M, as described in post #14394590.

    This is a summary of my thoughts on the sort of deal I will be looking for from a suitor. Let me know if you think I may have missed anything, as it will be useful for us all to have a clear idea of what an acceptable offer looks like whenever it is forthcoming. The offer will need to be approved by the lenders, who have security against the property, plant & equipment, and by the "rational" shareholders who own the property, plant & equipment.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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