the real fiscal story sans smoke

Zadz,

I don't have you on ignore (thinking about putting some distortionist there though).

The best overview of the Thai fiscal regime I have been able to find is a Thai Govt powerpoint.

http://www.dmf.go.th/dmf_proceeding/FiscalRegime_Onanong.pdf

I hope a few look at it, as I am tiring of dialog here with one who has not yet got past first base on his research, and who distorts what I say, and what Hartleys say.

The second place I'd look is the Hartleys proforma calcs for the 09 & 010 FYs. You will see there they have
Production FY 09 2.59 mmbo, FY 010 3.42 mmbo
Revenue 235.9mm, 323.4 mm
NPAT 58.2mm, 65.0 mm

Most notably a $87.5mm increase in revenue is projected to result in a NPAT increase of only $6.8 mm. That is CVN HAS ONLY BENEFITED AT THE NPAT LEVEL BY 7.8% OF THE REVENUE INCREASE. If you look into the detail of Hartleys numbers you will see this is mostly due to the SRB. My argument is entirely consistent with, and supported by Hartleys numbers (no matter how much smoke and distortion John applies).

Two other point on Hartleys numbers, firstly imho the projected projection is a little premature/optimistic, secondly 28 c of their 115 c is ascribed to exploration, and 13c to WB. I don't ever like to pay that much for bluesky, and aside from the exploration potential of WB, I am not ready to value it at 13 cents.

I do not fault Hartleys analysis, rather I value it, but consider it more optimistic than what I am prepared to pay.

EL