the real issue, page-19

G'day Reeftip.

I guess next time you visit you might want to spend a bit longer to ask about what the NPA are up to. The NPA are very active in Caraga. The recent Claver hit was only 20km away from Siana. There have been gunfights between NPA and the army even closer. In response to the Rabbit making an issue from this earlier, I asked about Red5 (Greenstone) specifically and was told they had a raid and equipment burnt early last year at Mapawa, but to my knowledge nothing has happened yet at Siana.

The NPA are active in Caraga because that is where the money is. They can smell it. The generals in Manila lament the fledging mining renaissance because they see it as the "milk cow" of the NPA. Furthermore, it seems that the Claver raid was allowed to happen, as it is suggested that Nickel Asia have been under-reporting production and also underpaying local military, police and political interests as well as the NPA.

However, I agree with Reeftip that the area is reasonably safe and I don't perceive the NPA as a threat to my life when travelling around, although I'm mindful they could commandeer and destroy vehicles and such if they thought I as doing anything mining related.

But as I've posted here numerous times before, the NPA do not affect sovereign risk and there is little to no reason to worry about them as an investor.