The Real Value of Firefinch

I'm tired of reading negative BS on a stock that has great potential and is up near the yearly high prices, showing that the market overall is bullish for Firefinch both technically and fundamentally.

So I've started this thread as a common place for people to show where they think the stock price could go, based on their own research. We all have slightly different approaches to investing (and trading), based on a vast range of different parameters, so it would be nice if people could outline there approach to investing in this stock, what makes them currently hold and where they think the SP could go in whatever time frame they are concerned with..

Obviously I'll go first..

I have a short range projection for the SP of around 45c for Firefinch based on a comparison with what is happening in another mining stock, in a similar position but a different commodity, Panoramic Resources..

PLEASE NOTE I DO NOT ENDORSE PAN, IT IS FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY!!

PAN just released a presentation on the Savannah mine restart, so the similarity with FFX is that they are restarting mining in something that was on C&M (our crushing and grinding circuit has been on C&M). Their numbers are what is important to look at, current Ni price $US7.55/lb, All in costs $A6.36/lb ($US4.85), expected production around 9,072t/a. There all in costs come to 64.2% of the prices received for the Nickel (The 'all in costs' are net of by product credits).

A simple calculation based on those numbers gives a 'profit' of around $US54M or $A70.8M, the market currently values that stock at ~$A350M, and reading the PAN threads a lot of holders are expecting the SP to go up significantly from this current level.

Here at Firefinch the current MCap is around $192M, yet when the mine plan comes out it will show us mining a resource with a grade of around 1.6g/t and a recovery of 91%. Given our 4.5Mt/a processing plant, the overall production should be around 210,000 oz on a 100% basis, or 168,540 oz for Firefinch's share.

Current gold price is $US1,743, so to make around the same amount as PAN on our 168,540 oz of gold produced we would be making $US320/oz. This would mean our All in costs would be in the order of $US1,420/oz.
I think our costs will be much lower than that based on history, probably around the $US1,100 at most, which would make our 'profit' double that of PAN.

Even using a high figure of $US1420 for all in costs, then in theory the 2 investments should rate around the same value, given that the mine life is around the same for both. For Firefinch to be valued equally with PAN our SP would be $350/192 (their Mcap divided by ours) X .245 (current SP) = 44.5c/sh.

That 44.5c/sh gives me a short term target, which just seems to be right around where @Tanofta has just shown the TA heading towards on the chart thread, so an interesting juncture.

Of course when the Morila mine plan is released, IMHO it will show a much lower 'all in cost' number than $US1,420, probably a lot less than $US1,100, but even at that number our MCap should be double that of PAN. (We'd be making twice the profit).
This little exercise values the lithium at zero, which we all know is not accurate, but shows the potential upside in the SP from here and one of the reasons why I'm invested here in an above average position. It also shows how I go about fundamentally giving a value to an enterprise by comparison with others on a numbers basis.

Aspects that could push the SP much higher again include mining higher grades initially, lower 'all in costs', a good valuation/sale of the lithium, plus higher gold prices.

Hopefully some other people can contribute to this thread some of the reasons, backed up with numbers of why they are invested here and where they think the SP will go to in whatever time frame suits.

BTW, this is a thread for why and how people value FFX, not for arguments about small aspects here and there. TA is welcome here just as much as fundamentals..