Insider buying could be either good or bad, one can hardly tell it's a real vote of confidence or a decoy to comfort retailers like you to stablise the SP.. I would focus more on how much the other directors bought except A and W, and the dollar figuer they bought didn't look like a vote of confidence to me, considering they are all high net worth people.
Truth is the fxl SP is unable to retain above CR price and making a new low, while most would agree SME Lending and Credit Card will be under pressure due to 1.covid and business circle in the coming years, bnpl is left to be the only growth opportunity for the company.
however, I don't see much chance it will succeed, I'm giving my reasoning here and hope someone knowlegeble can correct me if I'm wrong.
1.BNPL business model is yet to prove its profitability. It could be the new Credit card or nothing.
2. Customers have no loyalty, the cheaper one with more options wins, same as the race of ride hike apps of Uber likes, a death spiral to the bottom then winner takes all.
3.Humm missed the party, now late with everything, no exclusive deals with major brands, lower customer number equals a low volume, I'd rather sign Apt or Zip rather than humm if I'm a business. Even it charges a cheaper commission but meaningless with the lower volume, and humm has no balls to buy good partners like OPY did to Bunnings.
4.Differentiating Strategy is questionable. HUMM has no chance to win the bottom market so turn to the upper one, however it never disclosed the margin per transaction like APT did, so we have no idea how much it makes out of it. But one thing is obvious, the upper market is now being taken by the big boys as well, with many dental clinics signed with apt and zip. The differentiate is not that different at all, it's not a proactive but forced move, now this market portion is also being taken by its competitors. My guess is Humm will further bleed losing major partners due to no volume. Have a look at their social media accounts and recent father's day event you would easily find out how unpopular they are, even mine has more likes and comments than theirs.
5.The whole bnpl sector valuation is absurd at the mercy of stimulus and central bank policies, when they rise, fxl merely follows, when they drop, fxl does catch the pace, where will the inevitable future correction take the fxl sp to? Its funny someone said to review my strategyin two years as my money could make a lot of return in this period of time rather than stew with fxl's own juice and deprciate here.
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