This is very bad luck. A successful phase IIa that met safety...

This is very bad luck. A successful phase IIa that met safety and efficacy end points (the drug inhibited the right enzyme), but the program is cancelled due to the potential for a rare (but important) drug drug interaction in another small phase I. I guess the good news is that the market hadn't priced in a positive result anyway.

Focus now will be on a big LOXL2 deal, the results for diabetic retinopathy, both due in the next few months, as well as FDA approval for Brochitol mid year.

A LOXL2 deal could generate around $50m up front next year. If LOXL2 is partnered, PXS will not need to spend another cent on that program. There will be no drug interactions with the LOXL2 inhibitor.

Positive diabetic retinopathy results will also see a share price surge plus trigger another $60m milestone if/when DR goes into phase III (now gets first indication milestone payments). Massive unmet medical need in diabetic retinopathy.

The systemtic pan lox inhibitor could generate $30m upfront if partnered next year.

I rate the probability of FDA approval for Bronchitol at around 90%.

With FDA approval, the global Bronchitol business should start generating around $10m in profit/ year. Arguably, PXS's current market cap of $100m could be justified by the Bronchitol business alone (assuming FDA approval).