The rest of Hauk Road likely worth $3 bn or $15 per share

Hi,
Following Morgan Stanley's piece, i just did a quick calc on what the rest of the Haul Road is worth;
Assumptions: 35 m tonnes Fy 26,, 50 M tonnes from Fy 27 onwards, Inflation 2.5 per year, discount rate 10%, 25 year mine life.
Value is $2.9 bn or $15 per share.

Using an APA equivalent i also think is reasonable for Min Res Haul Rd, APA current dividend growth is 2% per year, it trades on an estimated Fy 27 dividend yield of 7.9% = $3.3 bn equivalent for the Min Res Haul road.

Happy to discuss or take comments.

I don't think these calcs are that difficult to do, and i'm happy to vary sensitivities and provide results, eg just keeping it at 35 m t for mine life etc.

PP, i know you love me starting new threads. If you give me the contact numbers for those Morgan Stanley boys, i'm happy to call them up and correct their models.

A lot them are my ex UBS mates, and you'll gain a lot of extra kudos with them if they know you know Dekka!

				Inflation	2.50%
		Haul Road
		Charge	Prodn	Value $ M
1	1-Jan-25	8.27
2	1-Jan-26	8.48	35	$148
3	1-Jan-27	8.69	50	$261
4	1-Jan-28	8.91	50	$267
5	1-Jan-29	9.13	50	$274
6	1-Jan-30	9.36	50	$281
7	1-Jan-31	9.59	50	$288
8	1-Jan-32	9.83	50	$295
9	1-Jan-33	10.08	50	$302
10	1-Jan-34	10.33	50	$310
11	1-Jan-35	10.59	50	$318
12	1-Jan-36	10.85	50	$326
13	1-Jan-37	11.12	50	$334
14	1-Jan-38	11.40	50	$342
15	1-Jan-39	11.69	50	$351
16	1-Jan-40	11.98	50	$359
17	1-Jan-41	12.28	50	$368
18	1-Jan-42	12.58	50	$378
19	1-Jan-43	12.90	50	$387
20	1-Jan-44	13.22	50	$397
21	1-Jan-45	13.55	50	$407
22	1-Jan-46	13.89	50	$417
23	1-Jan-47	14.24	50	$427
24	1-Jan-48	14.59	50	$438
25	1-Jan-49	14.96	50	$449
			NPV	$2,937
	Discount rate		10%
	Per share			$15.11
	APA equivalent			$3,318
	per share			$17.07
	Fy 25	0.57
	Fy 26	0.593
	Fy 27	0.62
		0.669
	share price	8.52
	Yield	7.9%