the revival of the satelites is key for bnb

I have had a look at the half year accounts and tried to think where a lot of the write offs are going to come from.

Quite obviously the value of the BNB satellites has deteriorated considerably since 30 June 2008. At this point they valued these holdings at $1.6B. At a guess they (at current market values) could be as low as $600M.

Out of this $1.6B, the following large holdings were:

BBW $61M This seems to be going along OK
BBI $224M This value is way down, they are donwsizing
Coogee $139M The value of this must have died with the oil price.
BBPP $60M (B&B Public Partnerships UK, not sure what this is - anybody?)
BBC $56M looks likely to be sold and turned into cash
BBCap $70M From memory they are winding this down
Everest $104M It sounds like they are slowly winding that down
BBP $130M This has been decimated, also owes BNB $400M. Looks like they are going to sell most of this off.
BB Glob $45M BB Global partners UK, not sure what this does
Spinco $56M BB Spinco US, not sure what this does.
Margrethe $40M never heard of this one


I think a major key in the survival of BNB is that over the next year or two these satellites need to recover, mainly through a period of no dividends and debt reduction and cost reduction and eventually emerge in a better state of financial health and operate as normal companies again and pay dividend etc. If this was to be the case, then the values would recover and BNB could write those values back on to its balance sheet and restore some equity.

One point to consider is that the BNB lending banks are quite likely to be the lending banks in these satellites as well. I think their overall exposures could be quite considerable and they could be reluctant at this point to put BNB under and cause themselves a whole lot more grief on their balance sheets. They are in too deep.

Could other people who know anything about the above satellites post and tell us what the latest status is with them.