SLR 0.00% $1.57 silver lake resources limited

the ridiculous prophecies, page-86

  1. 13,967 Posts.
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    "However, the case I often read for gold is that gold is money (not a commodity).


    I think there is no denying that gold is money.
    Not just because it has been so for thousands of years, but also because central banks clearly consider it an important part of their reserves today as well. They don't generally hold copper or oil but almost all hold gold along with a basket of other foreign currencies. In fact for some countries it is around 50% (or more) of their reserves. They obviously see it as money.

    That does not make it stable though (as we have seen).
    All forms of money can fluctuate relative to others from supply/demand pressures.
    During the GFC, the AUD fell to around 60c as holders bailed out. During the QE rallies, money flocked back into the AUD and it almost doubled. It also flowed into gold but now we are seeing the reversal in the AUD and we saw the short term investor money come out of gold over the last two years.
    So money (even a currency with very high liquidity such as the AUD) can fluctuate similar to a commodity from supply/demand and so too for gold as money and as a commodity (jewellery and industrial demand makes it also a commodity to a limited extent).
    The big difference is that most fiat money reverts to a mean because all countries print very roughly similar amounts of new money to keep in line with other countries to remain competitive.
    We can't allow the AUD to go from 60c to $2 for example as it would destroy our economy.
    Gold has no such limits though. It can not get printed. Mine supply increases above ground supplies much more slowly than paper money and so over the long term gold has risen and should continue to do so irrespective of short/med term fluctuations brought on by investor flows.
    The long term uptrend for gold is correlated to the relative increase in the monetary base and the fact that gold has badly lagged that increased money supply suggests that the POG is much lower than where it should be based on that relationship. For now investor outflows are creating that short/med term imbalance. It will rebalance when the supply/demand equation shifts yet again.

 
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