Originally posted by Dbdesigns:
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Jezza, mate you need to know the history before making comments. The open cut has been mined to 50m. It’s 350m long not including the extensions. To open cut they would need to remove from the south side 50m stripback south x 350m length and 50m deep. So at 50m strip back S x 350m length x 50m deep x SG 2.5t/m3 = 2.2million tonnes. Cost to just reach the orebody would be 2.2mt x $4t = $A8.8m. Then you need to start mining. In the Wardley James Capel ( the Bible)Report 1.1 my @ 5g/t Au (not the recent half baked JORC). The Wardley report mentions the next DMR phase ow that open cut had reached its viable depth, was a decline. So DMR obviously did the numbers just as I did. ( obviously a lot lower in those days. A decline today 4m x 4m on a day 1 to 6 fall is $4,000 per decline metre. So Ausmex could mine for 350m length, 1-6m fall would be down 60m at the other end that they start from. Assume orebody 6m true width. 350lx30m deep on average x 6m wide and SG of 2.5 = 157,000 tones ore per 350m length of each 1 in 6 decline. Cash straight away. Cost decline 350m x $4,000= $A1.4m. Mining of ore include cross cuts to orebody say $10 tonne. 157,000 tones + cross cuts say 2,000 tonneau total cost per 350m x $4,000m = $A1.59m . Total cost for $A157,000 ore $A1.59 + $A1.4m mining ore = $A3m. Jezza , Compare your numbers: $8m just to get to orebody, before mining ore. Decline cost $A3mand will have 157,000 tones of ore on surface( Wardley James Capel) resource 1.1mt estimations @ 5g/t Au. Today Gold say $A2740 gone or $A88.50c per gram = $A69m of gold per 350m decline. Drilling shows they can possibly get 7 decline lengths based on the current Wardley report. This does not include what Ausmex has it including the Mt Freda extensions or Golden Mile or having to go below 250m vertical depth. These are real numbers not made up ones. I have got these numbers from industry persons and the prices are current prices and includes all labor costs. The only other costs are transport to a process plant. There are three in the area. Current transportation industry cost is $10 tonne per tonne per kilometer. Say 50 Klms is 157,000 x $10 tonne and processing $25 tonne. So transport and processing $A35x 157,000 = $A5.49m. Leaves Nett surplus of $63.5million. Just for one 350m decline and 6 to go. I think that the latest presentation was the last wake up call. This is why the previous owners DMR, of Mt Freda in 1989 had a market cap of $270m. The puzzle is why Ausmex is $20m?? The answer is obvious to those been from the start. Shares handed out like confetti to idiots that just want free money and don’t have a clue on the value of what they are actually giving away. When ( NOT IF) the share price is +$1.00 they will be crying fowl play. Anyone can challenge my numbers. They are all up to date industry costs. Again this is not a ramp, I’m just saying what any current feasibility will say . If not exactly the same I don’t think will be too far either way. As for Capital raising speculation, somehow i don’t think so. The Company has $3.5m cash and another $1.5 owing for sale of Gilded Rose. So $5m cash and no debt. My guess will be convertible notes. Why? Because I believe these new guys now in charge of Ausmex all know the real value and won’t in my opinion doing deals on cap raising anywhere near these prices. Only way to get this stock, is to put your hand up in the market. The Confetti sellers with about 70m shares will be glad to sell to you under 5c and be they will rejoice. You don’t need to push the price up!!!they will sell. The price they sell for in of no consequence to them. It’s all profit for them. Ausmex is without doubt in my opinion the best ride in town. Jezz, happy for you to question or challenge my numbers. They have been peer reviewed. Also, congrats to Aaron Day the newly appointed MD and team. What a great Friday ASX presentation. Has a smell of fresh air about Ausmex.
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Thanks for the analysis DB. I agree with you this thing has the potential to generate some strong cash flow if they can get it up and running. My only comment on your numbers is they are just operating rates. I assume there would also be a large establishment cost with setting up an underground operation before you take your first tone of ore.
I also agree it would be good if they could fund this with debt rather than raising capital at a depressed price. This is likely to be difficult in the current environment though and the terms may not be favorable.
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