I can't seem to fathom the commentary here about how politically...

I can't seem to fathom the commentary here about how politically controversial the extension of the approval is and how much of Australia despises it like it's something of any consequence. (it really isn't when you put it into perspective)

Very high level view point

STATE Level
At a state level there a number of seats that this could affect for LNP but NSW is up for reelection in 2023, there is a hell of a lot of water to pass under the bridge. That said, these seats are not traditionally dominated by LNP anyway. So trying to swing a seat that you really are not banking on anyway doesn't really have the political steam behind it.

What could be considered is if everything went to plan, there is a real possibility there will be an active rig in 2023. That could have an effect in that election. It also shown at a state level, the NSW Joint authority has historically refused.

State played their hand of essentially complete silence (JB) until he finally said 1 voice snippet (when he was talking about something else) and his letter. Done and now you wouldn't get anything from them from this point. Carefactor appear to be focused on just responding to concerns then really pushing a refusal outcome (all appearances sake)

Federal Level
This really effect 1 - 2 federal seats and Pitt has dismissed this in his interviews previous that this is of concern.

I think its a far fetch to think this extension has any level of care factor from any other frontbencher like the rapist staffer, covid vaccine roll out, job keeper blah blah blah. This approval gets no time in parliament and when it does, it's a nobody politician talking to an empty room for her quick snippet for Facebook so her constituents think she is working in their best interest. The PM aint sticking around for that low level members to talk, shit albo doesn't even stick around to listen to her talk. (really a critical labor issue when nobody is there)

Yes Labor is throwing punches at the government, but they are throwing punches in every corner and Pitt-11 is genuinely not one of them (hasnt been mentioned in parliament in the last week). Albo got his quick presser while he was traveling (he certainly didn't travel for this event, but it was convenient to their schedule). They are in opposition, that's the role they play. Throw mud and see what sticks (this didn't)

Furthermore, to think scomo is going, "shit i don't want you to extend this mining license because they will bring a vote of no confidence" is crazy talk. They throw those out like candy. It gets no media and this would be another circumstance where people think this has any relevance to people outside of the central coast. Before investing I have never heard of it, I still only hear about it by scrubbing the internet (and HC). After i exit, i probably will never hear of it again (I'm SEQ based)

Media
This doesn't have this widespread media attention as everyone is promoting. It is completely localised to the Newcastle and central cost location. I note ABC has written 2 articles after Pitt's recent interviews and they didn't make ABC news's front page. You have to scrub the internet to find them, not exactly riveting reading to any/ most. (i find it riveting because I want my multiples )

My take on a likely approval
- This applicant sits well with government energy policy (which the LNP haven't really had for an extended period of time) - Tick
- There is a key Gas report later this week (it could coincide with this) - Tick
- The Baleen basin has just found shrimp in the groundwater. Likely this will significantly delay this project ($150m committed they can no longer commit) - Very Helpful to Pep-11
- This is a pointless distraction for the government. Approve it and it will be forgotten about with 2 weeks. Tick
- Pitt needs to allow enough time in his review to appear to be considering it - 1 to 2 weeks seems reasonable and lines up well with the release later this week. Do them together and PEP-11 will probably miss the spot light completely.

Id go 80% chance it happens. (worth noting I would persoanlly never go higher on a political decision).

The reality is, the short-term investment strategy is for an extension and a share price increase. If you dont want to ride the wave, then dont. That's a risk/ reward appetite each investor has.

Really nothing has changed in the last month except the volatility of the SP, not the fundamentals to the value proposition. (approval = bags, refusal = tuna and rice for a few weeks/ months)