that's a fantastic update mate. thanks for that.
interesting point for me was completion to manono end of 2019. whilst this route may not have been the most cost effective. it may be a functional logistics option which can support tangible freight tonnages of production so as to be incorporated in the DFS.
I agree with a few others that the DFS will need to use a route which either can be proven to take the tonnages now or an estimation of capital required to upgrade an alternative route.
just all seems to be coming into fruition. admittedly a little slower than I would have liked. ideally they needed finance or offtake buttoned up 18months ago.
but tbh I'm someone glad AVZ didn't cut any deals in the last 6-12 months. My gut still tells me they would want lithium sector to return and get an increase in the S/P to help negotiate more favourable terms.
if (keyword) the "final investment decision" is to be committed after the DFS (which is what was announced) and theres no major offtake or buy in prior - I do believe there will be a CR in Q1/Q2 (if all the options are in the money) perhaps they can limp through.
I do think avz will be at a much higher price in the next 5 months, so no reason IMO to sell now in pre-empt of that. in a really good position atm.
cash backing, lithium sector bottomed (spod sale price at upper quartile opex prices, infrastructure being upgraded to the door, elections all wrapped up nicely, met testing well and truly underway, DFS kicked off, few tweaks to the resource categorisation after some dewatering, chairman appointment (a little peeved on the delay on this), fairly certain pattos hasn't exercised those performance options, would suggest there's still a RAF patented P and D to occur.
I genuinely can't see anything glaringly obvious that could really negatively impact the price that badly from here. everything that could have occurred already has. won't be a straight line - but have we weathered the final storm? I'm betting a pantload of avzo's we have.
SF2TH
The Road to Manono, page-871
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