The science nerds need to step up, page-21

Hi Guys
Back in February my first (aver) post was an attempt to put a value on an Admedus share ...

So I thought it would be worthwhile to use that same methodology to update to hereabouts


Attempt at valuation at July 2014 of Admedus based on stand-alone segments

1 Existing hospital supplies & equipment business at $8m sales pa …. Gross profit (say) $3m … net profit before tax $1m
Value on p/e of 17 (moderate growth prospects) = $17million
With approx. 1.4 billion shares =approx. 1.2 cents per share ($0.012 each)

2 Cardiocell … guesstimate (say) 2 years from now sees sales of 50,000 units pa (conservative rough-as-guts) at (say) $1,500 each average .
Thus total gross margin (67%) pa at $ 50 million with high net profit ratio of (say) $40 m pa
Business value at p/e multiple of 20 (high growth) =$400m
Approx 1.4 billion shares = $0.28 (twenty eight cents per share) BUT discount 2 years to present day
At a rough discount to present day of (say) 35% (ballpark 20% pa) = present-day value per share of ( 0.65 x $400m/1.4b) $0.186 per share (eighteen cents)

3 Vaccines business .. HSV2 … discount other vaccines in calc as being off too far in future
If it works, then we move to Phase 2/3 trials quickly (I hope) … I would think in 3 years $1billion dollars
BUT discount to present day (50%) and remember we at Admedus only get a little over 50% (Coridon gets to rest)
Therefore (say) $250 million to Admedus present day implies $0.18 per share present value approx. ($250m / 1.4 billion)
BUT .. if it doesn’t work, it’s worth nothing (that’s why I am hanging out for confirmation of efficacy from Phase 1 results statement

Therefore current share price should be approx 1.2+18.6= 19.8 cents per share ... say $0.20 per share.based on the existing distribution and Cardiocell businesses
If the HSV2 vaccine works, then there would be some increase after the news .. maybe up to $0.40 per share\

So why are we at a miserable $0,14 ???

I look forward to your comments … remember all this is very rough, but I thought worth putting together as it gives a perspective on the company’s value.