Listening to Black Swan Events - the changes with able/unable to be known or forecast may be changing. The History of the Eu first view of our cool Black Swans is the origin of the term. "Black swans were first seen by Europeans in 1697, when Willem de Vlamingh 's expedition explored the Swan River, Western Australia"

The term started with /via Absence of Evidence is not always Evidence of Absence."

My personal close calls with death or destruction of capital usually involved some on in charge failing to consider evidence

Yesterday a car left drowning in a rail underpass in the middle of Melbourne made me chuckle just a little. It was right beside a depth sign showing just over 50Cm deep. Not boat depth for some yet too deep for others.

Back to shipping news! Maersk and other are in or out of the Red sea Suez canal route and the Panama canal is a bit dry still.

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Saving the Panama Canal will take years and cost billions, if it’s even possible

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Not suggesting "“If we don’t get three inches, man, Or four to break this drought, We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, “Before the year is out.”" as 100mm plus around here in places is going to see some green grass and low fire risks

"With water levels languishing at 6 feet below normal, the canal authority capped the number of vessels that can cross. The limits imposed late last year were the strictest since 1989, when the conduit was shut as the U.S. invaded Panama to extract its de facto ruler, Manuel Noriega. Some shippers are paying millions of dollars to jump the growing queue, while others are taking longer, costlier routes around Africa or South America. The constraints have since eased slightly due to a rainier-than-expected November, but at 24 ships a day, the maximum is still well below the pre-drought daily capacity of about 38. As the dry season takes hold, the bottleneck is poised to worsen again."

Bottle necks in Supply/ Increase costs all add to costs.

Ying and Yang apply. Black Swan events for some seem to be very profitable for alternatives. LYC for example( Not held any longer) Right now I see 'most' of my long term accumulation in sectors I hold outperforming significantly partly at least to poor planning and poor long-term management in critical supply chains such as power/energy security.

How often do will revisit the long-term plan or have one in the first place is surprising? Planning is in some seemingly knowledgeable organization fairly haphazard.