The Short Report, page-129

@740244

My sympathies to you and all others in the same situation. It is not a pleasant place to be in.
However, when did management lie to you or mislead you? Perhaps the market and many optimistic investors or commentators have done the misleading?
Personally, I sold part of my allocation of ASM from the ALK split early on because ASM was hard to value at the time. There was scarcely any drop in the ALK SP immediately after the split. It was as though ASM had little value or somehow it had been suppressing recognition of the Boda prospects that ALK is now depending on (pricewise that is).
I retained a percentage of my holding from the float but when it reached $14 or so, I felt it had gone to a ridiculous level and so sold out completely. I could not find any valuation justifying that price and so put the price down to hype and excessive optimism to which the market is prone from time to time with individual stocks - rare earths, magnets, electric vehicles and all that were probably the drivers of the ill considered and premature expectations. In other words, hype.
Since then, I have been tempted back in on a minor level for an average of $4.20 and so share your redness, even if more subdued, but I am holding for now.

ASM wants to be a vertically integrated producer of rare earth metals from mine to refined product and in an interesting manner it has managed to put the final leg into place well before the upstream is established.
ASM has two key parts: the metal plant and associated IP, and the Dubbo Project. Since rare earth products are a strategic resource these days, both the Korean Govt and the chaebols will ensure that the Korean plant succeeds. However, the Dubbo Project as the source of raw material is a different matter. It is fundamental to ASM's plans and hence valuation but the Koreans can bypass this if need be while Dubbo production is well into the future for several reasons, as follows:
- engineering studies (FEED) only just begun
- further approvals required before mining can begin (I think)
- very large funding ($1.7B) needed. In today's financial climate that is a major hurdle that will take some time to resolve
- establishing the mine and local processing plant will take a good deal of time, even once all the pre-requisite ducks are lined up in a row

On top of all this, the Dubbo DFS gave an IRR of 20.1% after tax, which is OK but nothing outstanding and so I may find better investment prospects elsewhere. So, probably, ASM needs to be valued on the basis of its Korean metal plant for a while, and that is still in start-up mode.

For myself, I will hold for now but I need to consider the recession predicted next year by the IMF for the world at large. I may be better to sell on any strength and retain cash so as to buy back in later. These are purely my thoughts that you can take or leave as you wish and I am not a financial advisor and neither am I giving you advice and I reserve the right to act contrary to my own thoughts, as set out above.