Obviously this heart thing is a v big deal . I just wonder though whether we are not entering a period where the environment for a classic short squeeze is being laid .
1. We need good news and that has started with the heart trial data followed by the New England journal of medicine stuff this week ( sorry I was out by a month on that one !). Management are meeting the fda this week regarding the potency assay which is the critical meeting and we know that the fda has stated that the meso approach was ‘reasonable ‘ which is a resounding endorsement for a bureaucrat .
2. The shorts thrive on liquidity events to cover . It is their oxygen . In this respect they believe that meso will have to issue equity to pay off the loans at year end . What if those loans were extended or renewed with a new lender ? No equity to issue
3. The shorts are also betting that Novartis will walk away , ergo no infusion of equity from them . It is only logical that they want to see the FDA’s reaction to the potency assay presentation . If it goes well then you would have thought that Novartis would move swiftly to make its equity contribution which would completely and utterly stuff the shorts as there would be no stock to cover from . It might also be the case that if the potency away is acceptable to the fda that this is the catalyst for substantial,institutional investment . Now that would have the shorts heading for the exit with a certain part of their body feeling quite sore !
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