I was going to do the same with another outfit, not in medical devices, but in broad terms a similar story - Amazon: Earnings + "Profit" = SP. Nice problem to have, billions in revenue and earnings, trading at a PE of 500, still barely profitable, yet a market darling!
Your work with Insulet is far more relevant and instructive.
Over the past couple of years Alan has consistently said he will continue re-investing in Unilife's future growth for the purpose of building an unassailable position in the injectable drug delivery market. Given that he has never wavered from this strategy, the fact that they are now in a position to forecast break-even/profit is a positive milestone not to be underestimated.
As IndiJo said yesterday, it's not necessarily about break-even or profit. It's about production metrics based on commercial supply agreements. Sign the agreements, install the capacity, produce the goods - don't even have to sell them year in, year out - that's taken care of by the long term supply agreements - and the revenue will flow, earnings will increase and hit the bottom line, and profit will take care of itself.
This is exactly what Unilife is doing, and will continue to do. As Ramin said, they have "now achieved critical mass and....continue to execute in all areas. Year-on-year revenue will increase. Losses will narrow. Sales will accelerate. Production capacities will expand. Deals will continue."
In this respect, other than a much-anticipated announcement that was not (yet) forthcoming - and how do you 'time' a price sensitive announcement for an earnings call? - there was nothing in the EC to justify the extreme reaction on the NAZ yesterday. In my opinion it was a call that said, business as usual. Yes, perhaps the message could have been delivered in a more robust, coordinated fashion, but hey, who am I to criticise? Provided the business is growing - and it is - I don't really mind.
The more I look at what happened on the ASX post-EC - the sell down followed by a bullish pull-back, then the dramatic sell-off on the NAZ on relatively low volume, and now today's price-volume action, the more I think we were simply the subject of a well-orchestrated raid. After all, there was and is no shortage of buyers. Wouldn't surprise me at all if there was an expectation from certain parties of a much higher volume transfer from weak to strong hands.
Meanwhile we can look forward to "additional cornerstone deals in ALL other areas of our product portfolio....includingUniFill prefilled syringes, auto-injectors, drug reconstitution delivery systems and ocular delivery systems."
