Your analysis of RFG acqusitions may be accurate, but it is also ancient history resurrecting a management team 3 generations old. That mob is long gone, as is their wasteful legacy and their debt pile.
I beleive the enquiry regarding SOL involvement is a little more contempoary vis a vis the refinancing of bank debt and provision of capital for opportunities such as Beefys.
It is way too soon for anyone to know whether Beefys will be the catalyst for renewed growth or another mis-step.
I agree SOL holds the cards here with secured high yield lending underpinning their modest equity position. However, no financier goes into any deal, big or small, expecting it to go belly up. Aside from the potential loss of capital, reputational damage is something they would seek to avoid vehemently.
We will all know at the end of this half, reported in August. Untli then, any financial projections, unsupported by a company announcement are mere conjecture and worth what one pays for them.
I have been happy to accumulate on RFG price weakness, anticipating a recovery in EBITDA and restoration of cash profits. It is a punt rather than a prognostocation and I stand more than prepared to profit or lose from my point of view.
I believe the upside from 7c is in multiples and the downside less than 50%. They are odds I am happy to take, reminscent (but clearly not the same as) Futuris Corporation of 30 years ago that evolved into Elders Ltd, and a 100 bag reslt for those that stayed on the ride for the long haul.For the record, I do not expect the same outcome here, but then again at sub 10c, I never in my wildest dreams expected FCL to become a $12 stock and ASX mainstay.
That is what makes punting in shallow waters exciting and speculative.
GLTASH
RFG Price at posting:
7.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
