I have a feeling this will not be my most popular post, but then...

I have a feeling this will not be my most popular post, but then again this is certainly not a popularity contest.

I suppose you could say this is born of frustration, but not at the company. Very little of my angst and inner turmoil is related to the company and how it operates. My frustration is at shareholders across the entire ASX, strangely tempered by a paradox whereby I completely understand and sympathise with their anger and resentment, but feel it is misplaced.

To be fair, those not holding stock haven't necessarily played no part in the CTP story. You cannot judge their position as people who get burned in any capacity have a long memory and can project onto other stories that bare congruency to their own experience. I for one was burned by a company called Compass Mining Resources and their crook of a boss Gordon Toll. He took a share price of $0.30 to $6 in no time at all, constantly getting "info" out there and aggressively spruiking the market, just to see it all degrade to the point of administration at $0.13 when the house of lies collapsed under it's own weight. This scarred me for a while and I made poor investment decisions after that as I lost that trust factor. I sold FMG prematurely, along with BRM, SFR and most recently LYC. What I am getting at is shareholders have legitimate right to be highly cautious as past experiences weigh heavily on the decisions they make now.

However, what I feel many investors do not recognise is that the share game is extraordinarily difficult and picking a winner is not what it used to be. We have been so very spoiled in the years leading up to 2007-2009 (and even now). That boom made stock picking as easy as having a large enough list and pointing at the screen. It was entirely too easy and it really bred bad habits across the entire investor landscape. After the GFC fear was brought back to a market that had completely forgotten it's own fallibility. We still see cavalier buying, but now juxtaposed and almost always tempered by panic selling. Negative news seems far more regular than positive news, and positive news has become so convoluted for most that anything short of an overvalued takeover deal is considered poor form. People do not rate fundamentals like they used to, and what I find borderline hilarious are those who are sick of hearing about "potential". Well I am sorry, but what the hell else do you expect a junior explorer to talk about? If they had a maiden resource and were producing then we can talk about EPS and EBITDA all you like... also you can walk on over to any mid-cap you want and worry about those things, and begin your analysis. In case you've forgotten, Juniors ONLY have potential to go on. That's how they chose their permits, and that is why investors put their money down in the first place. What about seed capital? Did they invest on anything but potential? Give me a break, please.

As long as there is a stock market, there will always be people who make gains and others who make losses. Timing has MUCH to do with it. If you bought MMX in the mid noughties at sub $0.60, and you ran it up to $5 then you did very well. If you bought at $5 and then encountered the GFC where it fell to $0.30, then you did poorly. On the other side, we have someone like Sandfire. Anyone who bought in 2006 and got hit by the GFC in 07/08 may have lost a fortune and sold out. Those who bought during the GFC lucked out and the rest is history. Peoples' opinions can only reflect their own experiences and I do not purport to speak on anyone's behalf. I just feel your bad experiences cannot reflect the company itself for that is not logical. Those bagging the potential of Sandfire prior to the company making discovery are gone... lost to the wind. CTP's potential is the same in many respects as what Sandfire were discussing in the lead-up to their discovery. We had definitely become a very spoiled investor generation and we are learning now it was never meant to be that easy. When cabbies and randoms on the street have stock opinions without so much backing as "they're going to go up", then you know you're around the corner from a crash.

CTP is very much a victim of the times, and I believe to call it a "wealth destroyer" is a prophetic overstatement. We need to recognise there has NOT been anywhere close to a more dangerous time for a junior explorer in investing history since the great depression. Yet CTP continues on. I can give a plethora of examples of companies that have gone under during the GFC. CTP managed to endure it's most trying period and has entered it's most exciting phase ever. It actually fundamentally looks stronger than any time in it's history.

Those who say "share price" never lies are incorrect but for the very phrasing of "never". Have they even heard of arbitrage? Such a term would not have existed were the share/spot prices in financial markets "always right". Though I am not championing arbitrage necessarily for CTP it is worthy to note that anyone too far on either side of the argument is possibly not looking at the greater picture.

As for CTP's share price and where it's going, I feel that they have not performed too badly considering the negativity since the Aussie hit US$1.05+ and Europe re-emerged as a scary proposition, not to mention the U.S figures sinking despite their attempts at printing their way out of it. I think it is unfair to expect any junior explorer to somehow conduct a frightfully difficult operation such as locating natural resources without raising significant sums of money. Companies like BRM have raised more than CTP and have gone from Junior explorer to developer and producer. Others like Sundance have raised similar sums, and in the mean time sought JV deals - whilst trading MILES under their historical high. Everyone has their way. News flash, not EVERYONE who invests in CTP will make money. This is true for every stock on the market ever listed - globally. There will always be winners and losers. CTP's successes that are being ignored are at your own prerogative. Not happy with the coal? Think it's too deep and far away? Fine. Think of this though, whilst companies exist who thrive on UCG/GTL etc, and demand for energy still exists then there is potential value in there somewhere. Yes the market hasn't priced it in, but if they had, would we be calling CTP a value prospect right now or a steady grower? Think about it logically. When a company reaches fair value, they are no longer worth investing in if you want capital growth. If it's stability and dividends you want, then why the hell are you even casting a cursory glance at the junior explorer sector in the first place? That makes utterly no sense.

Those who bought Sandfire, Paladin, Fortescue, Sundance, Lynas etc at the early exploration stages I am sure copped plenty of criticism much in the same manner CTP holders do. I am more certain that the bosses have all been chastised at one stage or another, but those who saw UNDERVALUED and POTENTIAL (though I know how much you all hate those words), won bigger than most of you and I can dream.

CTP has discovered deep but expansive coal
CTP has discovered poorly flowing, but potentially extensive gas/helium at Ooraminna
CTP has discovered Oil shows at their latest oil well, due to be re-drilled and evaluated upon completion of some form of capital raising
Market Cap sub $70m
Potential value? Anyone's guess but the answer is much higher than we are now

That is certainly NOT investment advice, but more fact and things that we know already as common knowledge. Seems that all that is holding us back is having enough money to see us through to that first easy-to-monetise-success. I feel in my own opinion that CTP will be one of those companies that people will talk about in the future as the one that got away. They will be saying how obvious it was in hindsight, just as investors did about Paladin during their huge rise, Brockman as they were in the middle of one of the most prolific iron ore areas in the world and some others.

We have been spoiled by the boom that looked endless. We've been knocked on our proverbial arse by the GFC and have entered a new landscape. We most certainly all fall victim to emotion, but when making investment decisions, you need to look beyond the obvious, because if success were that obvious, the whole world would be successful.

RB