PDN 4.10% $15.50 paladin energy ltd

THE SQUEEZE IS ON, page-12

  1. 261 Posts.
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    @Dazza00
    I'm quietly a little pessimistic, Cameco tend to be quite reticent about sharing too many details beyond one or two broad figures and maybe letting slip some implications in the Q&A. Therefore I think there's a decent chance they end up not telling us anything new, instead just confirm what we already know/assume from what we've seen in SWU/conversion/etc prices, without stating any figures or naming any names.

    Keep in mind Cameco from a Machiavellian perspective are also pretty happy to see the price hover around $50-60 and slowly creep up over the next few years while they boot up McArthur; they don't actually want an overshoot prompting a load of juniors to produce & compete, so even if they are seeing a massive (over)feeding frenzy with everyone at every stage of the supply chain competing for pounds and SWU, they might not want to publicize this. OTOH it's kind of a 3D chess of second order effects and that reading might be too simplistic, so I could be entirely wrong about their incentives.

    Regardless, I *am* expecting objectively pretty positive news from Cameco, just not necessarily a big catalyst headline infodump telling us 100% of enrichment capacity is currently getting calibrated for maximum overfeed etc etc. Would love to be wrong though! (and ofc even after a lukewarm report market may decide it's time to go +10% regardless, we have certainly been going down an insane amount recently relative to what the non-spot supply chain is very obviously doing)
 
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