Couple of weeks I asked I asked - Have we topped for this phase this week? Now I am thinking, Yes we have, I hope I am wrong.
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A bad week overall, nearly flat, moved from 1533 to 1415, so a decent drop. And now much below recent high of 1798- over 20% drop, I know most are bullish, but look at my posts and I said we will peak before May end - its looking very likely that way. We could fall another 15/20% from here, especially taking weak ASX June tax transactions into play.
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I feel we may have topped in short term, look at my weekly report, I could be wrong though. Here is my report for this week.
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- Uranium Sector overview - I made a call several weeks back that CCJ will make new highs between 55 to 60 in this phase of rally. It reached 56.24 previous week. 4 weeks back I also first wrote that the current rally will peak in next 2 weeks. Many big ASX U stocks made 52 week high during those two weeks. This week ASX U stocks lost 3% on a weekly basis, last week it lost 9%. What does it say? Did my prediction that we would peak out by end of May turn correct? Will CCJ also fall down and 56.24 become the high of this phase? Very early days, but there are indications. The sector is still in a bull pattern in last 6 months, so correction can happen. Or we may not see a correction now and continue to rise. Its best not to make assumptions but follow price action. Last week I wrote I had exited all my U stocks, most sold before end of May, a balance after that. I have not yet bought. I will be watching, will get in immediately if I get signs that it wants to continue. But my gut feel is we will see a correction. Last week the big ASX U stocks which made highs, had fallen 15% from their highs. This week they are sitting at 20% drop from their recent highs. If correction happens, I an thinking we could a drop between 30 to 40% from their highs, so another 15/20% drop can happen, easily. For those long, they may ride this (if it happens), because riding the plays has played out very well till now. My comment and play is only for those who want to do short-term trading.
Personally I exited mostly end of May and rest last week. Looking for a re-0entry. I am still very positive about the sector, so should be back soon.
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For those interested how stock is tracking against other Uranium stocks or who hold multiple Uranium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 34 ASX U stocks for more than 3 years. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. Also figures for last year. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
Here is the report for this week
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/age-weekly-report.6580138/page-5#post-74334020
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