Reaching the decisive point?.
From a weekly perspective, a small drop from 1174 to 1166. Usual volume.
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So what is happening? Last week I wrote that U macro is at critical level. I was also following CCJ trading pattern. It had played perfectly till then. A big rise from 40s to 50s. What happens next? Do we got 60s or we back test 45. I had written previously we back tested 45. But it doesn't need to happen. I follow price action, so best not to assume anything. CCJ got over 50 first time yesterday. I feel tonight is crucial. if CCJ has to make a new high, without back testing 45, it has to stay above 50. But if it loses ground, a very good chance w may see a play towards 45 next week. But that is not the end. Its just a back test. Those holding long, may still do very well. U macro is still very strong.
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From a numbers perspective, I had a number 1200 for PDN, it crossed that this week. So no more boundaries anymore. It needs help of macro. Downside, oh well, we have crossed lot of levels, we won't see that in short term, very likely.
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Personally, last week I wrote that I have exited at 1180 from my buys at 918, around 25% gain. So its all right till now, I have not missed a big one, for now. I am waiting for macro/CCJ to tell me what to do. Most people on long term, macro is looking good, but its individual risk reward. it aws looking great earlier in the year. And then most U stocks lost 50%. We think we know. Actually we don't. We just hope.
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So which is the direction?. I don't know. I will wait to see what happens tonight. U macros is very strong. Spot price is also on the rise, Can stocks play to that? Very possibly. There is not much to dislike, but we did make highs this year, January, March, May - we were in euphoria, and then stocks dropped over 60/70%, average 50% - no change in fundamental, just big guys playing us around, we don't like to admit, but I feel unfortunately we are just pawns in the hands of big players. We hope. They play. We hope they play what we want. 60% is not we wanted or hoped. It happened. That's the reality. Rest is wish and hope.
.So what may happen next week? All depends on CCJ. On weakness it needs to hold 45. But its got a lot of buffer for that. For many, its about early 50s. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best
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