PDN paladin energy ltd
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THE SQUEEZE IS ON, page-4960

  1. NavyDiver
    5,142 Posts.
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    05/06/25
    20:46
    Post #: 79336763

    There She Blows


    "
    • China General Nuclear’s new contract locks in uranium at US$94.22/lb, 52.5% higher than its prior deal, indicating tight supply and potential for higher spot and term prices
    "

    An under-the-radar catalyst for uranium stocks

    A Key Catalyst from China

    On Wednesday, China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) signed a three-year uranium supply contract with China Nuclear Fuel to deliver over 1,200 tonnes of uranium (approximately 3.12 million pounds of U3O8) annually from January 2026 to December 2028.

    The contract features a pricing structure with 30% at a base-escalated price of US$94.22/lb (adjusted for inflation) and 70% tied to spot market prices at delivery. This contrasts with CGN’s 2023–25 contract, which had 40% fixed at US$61.78/lb and 60% spot-linked.

    Why This Matters

    The CGN contract’s base price of US$94.22/lb is 52.5% higher than its previous contract and well above the current spot price of ~US$70/lb, with significant implications:

    Tight Supply, Rising Demand: The premium pricing signals expectations of constrained uranium supply and growing demand, particularly from China’s expanding nuclear sector.

    Upward Price Pressure: The high fixed price and spot-linked structure could lift both spot and term prices, potentially establishing a higher price floor and reducing spot market volatility.

    Geopolitical Dynamics: China’s move to secure domestic supply may reflect concerns over reliance on foreign uranium amid geopolitical tensions or potential export restrictions from major producers like Kazakhstan or Canada.

    The contango trade — buying uranium at spot prices and selling futures or term contracts at a premium — benefits from this development:

    Wider Contango Spread: The US$94.22/lb term price creates a larger gap over spot prices, enabling traders to buy low and sell high, boosting profitability.

    Increased Trading Activity: High term prices may drive speculative trading, with funds like Sprott Physical Uranium Trust or Yellow Cake PLC purchasing physical uranium at spot prices. This could tighten supply, pushing spot prices closer to term levels, narrowing the contango but driving overall prices higher.

    PDN Price at posting: $6.46 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
    Likes Created with Sketch. 7  Upvote
    lightbulb Created with Sketch.  Great analysis
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