Weekly data and thoughts. . Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor. . . .Uranium Sector Overview- . From a weekly perspective, PDN had one of the best weeks in a long time, with a gain of around 17%. Moved from 630 to 736. So well above my first number of 702, but still short of next one around 900. Overall play is great, made a high of 776 this week. Good momentum, lets hope it continues. . Shorts are now over 16%, so its increasing. Its not a good sign. 6 big ASX U stocks are still among top 15 shorted stocks on ASX, which doesn't make sense with what's happening in the industry. Although BOE % coming down, its increasing for PDN and couple others.. . Personally as I mentioned yesterday in another thread, have exited around 80% of my PDN. A good run. Reasons I have already mentioned yesterday and again today in my summary below. . Key Numbers to watch for stock share price? . If it goes to plan, then we may see higher prices. These are the numbers I feel could be in play - . 702 - First level, very good chance of that happening Next level - After 702 there is no real level as everything was in free fall. So anything in between 700 and 900 (next significant number 902) . If things don't go to plan, first play around 702, then we will have to see if that doesn't hold. . . Review of topping of CYCLE 1 2025 statement?
Point 1 topping- For last 3 months, I have been writing that CCJ (and sector) may top between end of May to mid June as part of first cycle of 2025 - Current situation - Not sure about topping yet because we are still playing. But some stocks, including CCJ at a 52 week high
Point 2 new high for CCJ- I had also been writing that as part of this, the odds of CCJ make a new high above 62.55 is very good, and the first level to reach will be high 60s for it - This has certainly happened, in fact, now in 70s. This week CCJ made a new high of 71.31
. Review of KEY indicators? Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few months - .
CCJ - Very good week, considering last week had gained 10%. Not only kept the gains but added another 2.5% to it - moved from 66.66 to 68.27
BOE/PDN - MONSTER week, gain of 20% for BOE and 17% for PDN - New 52 week high for BOE
Spot Futures - MONSTER week, in context, gain of around 9%, last week 69.75, this week 75.90, inching towards psychological 80
. . So what are the numbers telling?
U sector overall playing very strongly
There are no clear signs that we may have topped or topping,
CCJ made a great move last week, and has continued to go from strength to strength
ASX U stocks had a monster week with several U stocks gaining from 17 to 38% - yes just in one week
Spot price is also making a move. For several years 80 (with inflation could be 85 now) has been touted as a number for companies to be profitable/to reopen, its inching towards 80 now
Initial gains were mostly done by big U stocks. This week many mid U stocks like AGE/AEE/EL8 - they also made a move. Small stocks still lagging.
Many U stocks made new 52 week highs including CCJ/BOE/DYL - boom time
So at this stage there is nothing not to like
CCJ pattern has been very consistent - consolidation and then a big move, and then repeat. Same play from in 50s, around 60, and now towards 70 .
Why other U stocks not playing like CCJ/URA?
Last week I had written this section on why other U stocks are lagging CCJ/URA which were making fresh 52 week highs
This week that disconnect is now removed, so topic not relevant anymore
. Personally,Yesterday in one of the threads I had written that I had exited around 80% of my U stocks this week. First reason, very good gains have been made by many stocks, so wanted to lock in some. Secondly, I have been writing that some topping may happen by mid June (+/-), so want to see how it plays out. Third, wanted to pick some shares (non U stocks) that may be on sale this week for tax purposes - may not happen, but am prepared, in case. Till now I have not seen any signs of topping. So I will see how we go and when to buy back. I want CCJ do a drop around 8/10%, hold it, that would take care of pullback/consolidation etc. It has done that before, so want to see if it will happen in this leg. . . So what may happen next week?
I am thinking CCJ may consolidate here before the next move, unless there is a significant event/announcement etc
In previous consolidation at 50/60 etc, CCJ did a pullback of around 8%. If a pullback happens, in positive way, then it could be 8 to 10%, which will take CCJ in 64/65 land. A return from there will be healthy
If CCJ drops more than 10%, in the next week or so, that may be concerning, but not alarming.
If CCJ drops more than 20%, it will confirm the topping may have happened
Way CCJ is playing, and analysts have upped their target price, it seems it still has a few legs to go
ASX tax selling should not have much impact on U stocks
On Monday, US U stocks had a small to moderate drop, so may be a tentative start on Monday, but not expecting big percentage changes. Then it will depend on how CCJ and other US U stocks play
. Here is the Figures for the Week:. . .
PDN Price at posting:
$7.36 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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