Bear case imo in the immediate term relied on the idea of KAP...

Bear case imo in the immediate term relied on the idea of KAP not missing on production targets. Whilst the scuttlebutt was certainly focused around the idea that they were going to...seems entirely reasonable that there is a world in which the scuttlebutt was false.

Hypothetical, remembering that the KAP production target stuff didn't come out until 1 Feb (again noting short data being up to 29 Jan); what would have happened if KAP's update just said "yep everything is tracking OK"? Maybe not in the long term, but in the short term, certainly wouldn't have seen the sort of price explosion we did, and potentially would have seen a short term collapse of the SP across the sector. Shorts probably would have made a penny.

Could have been some people making an each way bet as well. i.e. I own a ton of U stocks, but what if KAP releases good news, better cover off a bit. Not particularly wise, but you never know...

In the end though, the bull case won out, and that seems to be the prevailing wind, so I'm glad it matches the conclusion that I had.