the state of play

I'm going to respond to some of the posts in the Elan thread, but I've opened up a new one as I feel that it is important to highlight what it happening here.

Firstly though I have to admit that I agree with cortinaboy when he mentioned that Tony was probably getting a little too excited taking the word "diabetes" and expanding it so much.
Diabetes is certainly worth a mention, but that's about it for the moment. However Tony has been highlighting some very significant things, which I will come to later.

cortinaboy is also right that neu cannot be peered with msb, as efficacy has not been demonstrated in a clinical trial (yet). But if that efficacy is demonstrated, then we have a mammoth on our hands.

But there's very good reason for hope here. nnz2256 already does in humans what we want it do in the clinical trials. I'll repeat that "nnz2256 already does in humans what we want it do in the clinical trials".

Auckland uni basically have taken a compound which already works in humans. It is human derived. That doesn't mean that it will give a positive effect in our clinical trials, but it's a massive validation.

One needs to compare this to most drug discovery targets. Take acl for example. They have the VAST drug discovery program. It contains 14,000 different carbohydrates.
Astrazeneca are paying to compare these carbohydrates to a number of different indications.

So random substances are being tested against random indications.

This is how we end up using pigs intestines and rat poison as anti-coagulants and tree bark for headaches etc.

But with nnz2256 we have something that is already proven to work in humans. Already proven to have the desired effect (again, not in clinical trials yet). As nnz2256 is human derived it is of no surprised that there has been no safety issues what so ever.

So neu have taken this substance that is known to work in humans into the laboratory to see if it works there.

All good in the petri dish etc, so then on to animal models. Well neu stated that with FragileX "The results appear to be among the most profoundly positive results achieved with any molecule in a validation model".

So pretty go so far, now we have to see if it continues to work in humans - and have the desired effect.

Sure there is still risk, but the risk/reward ratio is focused to much on the negative in my opinion.

Before recent happenings, I personally valued neu at a minimum of 10c a share, with loads more upside.

I read on a day trading thread that neu has gone up in value on nothing, but the truth is neu was undervalued, is still undervalued. What we are seeing is that the market is finally realising the value here.

What tony has been great at highlighting is how the commercial space is changing. As big pharma hits the patent cliff substances with orphan drug and fast track potential are becoming hot targets, even before efficacy is proved.

It has been a stroke of genius (and product validation) to bring in Richard Treagus (ex acr). He will create shareholder value and get us a great deal for sure. He has a proven track record. Compare the likes of acr and msb with agx and tis and one can see the difference that good management can make.

So given the potential here and the massive upside, I really think neu is still way undervalued, and should be nearer Bell Potters 17c target.

And I feel that it is wrong to assume that one has another year to wait until things happen. I'm sure that big pharma will move soon. They need to strike a deal now. If they wait until efficacy has been proved it will cost them billions.

All imho, cheers