Great discussion TI and CB, in particular CB always welcome your...

Great discussion TI and CB, in particular CB always welcome your scepticism after coming out warm and fuzzy from the AGM.

I'd like to address two separate questions:

Will the co be successful?
Can we make money?

The answer to (1) is who knows, because the Ph2 Retts could fall over in a heap and then we're waiting for TBI or one of the other molecules. I would note that in response to one of CB's comments, I suspect that trial design and general scientific process have improved in the last year as we have input from external experts in Retts and Frag-X.

In answer to the second, keep an eye on the SP as I expect two things to happen.

(1) sectoral interest as mining falls over and investors look for new areas, people will start crapping on about "knowledge economy" and "hi tech" industries again. Couple with hopefully expanded awareness of NEU all around (maybe someone should e-mail Peter Fitzsimons, who's always banging on about concussion?)

(2) if the SP rises as we head into next year that MAY be an indication that the trial is producing positive results. I've written before that the rumour mill/ social media may play an important role here, but ONLY if the drug produces clear positive effects. If it is effective in reducing the physiological effects of Retts (seizures etc) then the story will definitely spread. If the price starts falling back as we head into the middle of next year that would probably be a bad sign.

I should also mention that there is also the "expectation" that 2256 would address physiological symptoms of Frag-X as well, so again when those Ph-II trials start later on this year there will hopefully be clear and obvious physiological indicators of the trial's success. That trial will be a crossover trial too, so once again expect any success to percolate through social media if it's obvious to participants which one's the drug and which one's the placebo.

One of LG's comments at the AGM is that NEU is being seen as the "2256 company" rather than the "TBI company" and that this is a big perceptual change in the last year. I realise that feeds into CB's concern that the company is a one trick pony but it's clear that they see 2591 and the other threads of the company as backups, and that 2256 is where the action is and where the greatest chance of success and generating a return is.

I must say that while I love the "aspirin for the brain" line- driven by observations that the rodent models appear to gain overall benefits by use- I have a little concern at the too-good-to-be-true aspect though I can understand the underlying reason why this is so (the theory that 2256 attacks the core symptom rather than the outward indicators).

One of the questions asked informally at the AGM was "if 2256 is so good why don't you try it for all these other things" and it was VERY clear to me that the management had a solid, planned "hasten slowly" attitude. While they are enthused by the idea that there could be widespread applications, really those throwaway dot points on a slide at the moment really ARE throwaway dot points on a slide. NEU have lined up their targets: TBI now, concussion soon. Retts now, Frag-X soon.

On the more immediate side, I'm hoping 6c is the new 3c for now. Of course longer term I'm hoping 15c is the new 3c, but as I've said before, my perfect share rises by a few percent every day on average..... for a very long time.